I can’t bear to say this, but Kamala Harris could lose if Donald Trump succeeds in bringing new likely voters into the electorate.
The polls tell us she is up almost 3 percent nationally, and is likely to win the popular vote. But her thin lead over Trump in six of the seven battleground states is within the margin of error.
She might widen her lead if there is an “October surprise.” Special Counsel Jack Smith’s “oversized” 180-page brief, now under seal in Washington, may reveal new levels of Jan. 6 Trump criminality if unveiled before the election. And there could be a deal in the Middle East, as Netanyahu has pledged to hold talks on a U.S.-proposed cease-fire in Lebanon that could ease fears of a regional war.
Trump has historically outperformed the polls, as many Trump voters are understandably ashamed to say they support him, and they are tabulated as uncommitted. But, alarmingly, the averages say Harris has come up short in states Biden won in 2020 — in Georgia, where she and Trump are essentially tied, and Arizona, where Trump has the edge.
In Pennsylvania, which is a must-win for Harris, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll gives her a 5-point lead, although other polls show a closer race.
Harris is good at the subjects she is good at: abortion and Trump’s bad character. She recently stood beside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and gave a dynamite speech defending our policy in Ukraine. Character is........