Democrats’ strategy was for communications to close Biden’s policy and political deficit in 2024. It has failed miserably. Rather than closing, Democrats’ communication failures threaten to widen their gap.
Biden entered 2024 trailing Trump in the polls. According to Real Clear Politics’ Jan. 1 national averages, Biden trailed by 2.3 percentage points in a two-way race, 5 percentage points in a five-way race, and 3.7 percentage points head-to-head in top battleground states.
These deficits can be attributed to Biden’s policies during his (then) three years in office. Although low, Biden’s overall job approval (just 40.4 percent on Jan. 24) has been above his rating on the most pressing issues: the economy, foreign policy, immigration, inflation, crime, and the Hamas-Israel war.
With less than a year before the election and a divided Congress blocking legislation, there was little Biden could do on the policy front. However, communications offered opportunities and assets.
Biden’s deficit was hardly insurmountable. Democrats had a sizable fundraising advantage. Biden also had an opponent seen as divisive and with “favorables” barely higher than his. Biden’s incumbency advantage also allowed him to make news at will. And he had a pliant establishment media eager to help him make it — and willing to cover his mistakes.
Democrats’ strategy was as simple as it was necessary for them: Drive Trump’s negatives higher than Biden’s. They would paint Trump as a lawbreaker (facing four felony cases) and leverage his perceived divisiveness. As Biden did on Jan. 5, they would........