FOR INSIDERS: The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip in November |
FOR INSIDERS: The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip in November
The high-stakes battle for the Senate is growing increasingly dramatic with fewer than 130 days remaining until the midterms, as primary results and political developments redefine some key races.
Democrats would need to flip four seats to take the Senate majority — a tall task. But Republicans in Congress are increasingly worried about facing the brunt of voters’ discontent with high gas prices and the war in Iran, as evidenced by President Trump’s low approval rating.
Senate Republicans’ wariness about the midterms has shown up in the ways vulnerable senators have broken with the party on votes, and in the growing frustration over curveballs the White House has thrown into their plans to pass legislation they could tout on the campaign trail.
Democrats, meanwhile, are hopeful that rising costs and an unpopular war will help turn the tide even in redder states.
Primaries, too, have played a role as results in Texas and Iowa persuaded election handicappers to shift the two states toward Democrats — though both remain in the “lean Republican” column.
Here are the five Senate seats most likely to change hands in November.
The Tar Heel State has gotten redder in recent years, but in 2026, it seems poised to be Democrats’ most realistic chance to flip a Senate seat.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is retiring — and using his remaining months in office to remind colleagues that Democrats will take advantage of the Trump administration’s less popular moves in their effort to seize back the Senate.
In the race to succeed him, former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is polling ahead of Michael Whatley, who was the chair of the Republican National Committee (RNC) during the 2024 election. A Catawba College/YouGov poll shows Cooper leading Whatley by 14 points.
A Republican strategist based in North Carolina attributed the polling disparity to Cooper’s high name recognition from his long tenure as governor and in previous elected offices. Whatley, the strategist said, has been campaigning in every corner of the state and is closing the gap in name ID.
Nathan Gonzales, an elections analyst at the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter, also said Whatley’s weakness is his lack of name ID.
“If the election were held today, I think Cooper would win,” Gonzales said. “Most people are not familiar with who the former RNC chairman is, but I believe there’s a low ceiling for Democrats in North Carolina. They’ve had some statewide success, but it’s not going to be a blowout.”
Cooper also has a fundraising advantage, but that could be balanced out as national Republicans put more resources into North Carolina in the next few months. The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a super PAC linked to GOP leadership, pledged $71 million for Whatley’s campaign in April that will come into play down the road.
North Carolina is strategically critical for Democrats, Gonzales said, because it is the swingiest state in which the party hopes to flip a seat.
“If Democrats don’t win North Carolina, it’s a good night for Republicans, because each of the remaining states that Democrats need to win are more difficult,” Gonzales said.
Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their odds in the Buckeye........