Today's U.S. presidential election could be one of the closest in recent history. The razor-thin margins between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in many polls illustrates how much impact even small demographic changes can have, such as those driven by the recent surge in remote work.
Research by the nonpartisan Centre for Economic Policy Research shows that the flexibility offered by remote jobs has allowed people from traditionally Democratic urban centers to relocate to more affordable suburban or even rural areas, many of which lean Republican or fall in swing states. These shifts inevitably affect voter profiles in battleground states, potentially influencing who wins in these high-stakes regions.
The remote work revolution has brought a level of geographic mobility not seen in decades. Census data show that the percentage of Americans working primarily from home has quadrupled in three years, while the rate of state-to-state moves has increased by more than 12 percent since 2019. Freed from the requirement of daily commuting, many workers are choosing to leave high-cost, left-leaning states and cities such as California, New York, and Chicago, and instead settle in states where housing prices are generally lower and taxes more favorable.
Politically, these migration patterns are significant. Many of those moving out of left-leaning urban centers to suburban or rural areas — often in politically red or purple states — are bringing their voting preferences with them. If even a small percentage of new residents vote along the lines of their previous state’s tendencies, it could shift........