What the Iran-Oman deal could mean for Strait of Hormuz fight

An emerging deal between Iran and Oman could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give the countries joint control over its traffic, a major concession to Tehran.

The proposed plan, details of which are still being worked out, would reportedly give Tehran control of ships entering the Gulf through the strait. Who ultimately controls the outbound traffic and what role Iran has in it is still to be determined. The two reportedly agreed Wednesday on a new route for ships to transit the strait.

If agreed to, the deal would fly in the face of repeated assertions by Trump administration officials that Iran cannot control access to the vital shipping lane. But President Trump, seeking an offramp to a deeply unpopular conflict that is in its sixth month, appears anxious to use momentum from Iran-Oman talks to advance negotiations with Tehran on a broader nuclear deal.

An agreement in which Iran can control access to the strait also indicates the U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran has led to a significant shift in regional power toward the regime, which Washington initially said would unconditionally surrender. 

“I think the bottom line is it seems as though if there is an agreement, it will be one in which Iran retains its ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank. 

She added that should the U.S. acquiesce and accept the terms that the two countries decide upon, it’s likely to start another 60-day clock for U.S.-Iran peace negotiations — as had been envisioned in the initial memorandum of understanding signed by Washington and Tehran in June before it fell apart and hostilities resumed. 

“Ultimately Iran will continue to insist on its ability to control the strait,” she told The Hill of any future talks. “It’s not so much a compromise, but how that is affected, and whether there is, in essence, a face-saving way for the U.S. to acquiesce to the agreement. That’s the big question.”

Details surrounding the Iran-Oman talks have been shifting quickly this week, with reports that a deal between the two could be reached by Friday, though it wouldn’t mean that the strait would immediately reopen. The strait’s closure has driven up the price of fuel and other goods as a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas normally pass through the shipping lane.

Specific terms of the agreement are still to be seen,........

© The Hill