How Ukraine turned the tide against Russia

Ukraine appears to be gaining momentum on the battlefield in its grinding fight with Russia, regaining territory for the first time in years as it outflanks Moscow’s forces through its domination of drone warfare. 

Defense analysts this week said the war had entered a new phase, with Kyiv poised to break a stalemate that has been in place since late 2023, with neither side able to make significant gains along a nearly 700-mile front line.

Kyiv is now calling the next six months “crucial” for it to seize the battlefield initiative, as Moscow has responded to the momentum with threats of escalation and stepped up aerial strikes.

“For the very first time since 2023, the Ukrainians have actually managed to take back more terrain than the Russians did,” said George Barros, a longtime analyst on Russia now with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In a report this week, ISW said the Ukrainian gains show the war is shifting in favor of its forces, at least for the time being, thanks to Kremlin troops stagnating in battlefield advances and Kyiv’s forces effectively using drones and innovative tactics to break out of old positions.

Drones have proven to be the most effective tool for the Ukrainians, who have used them to extend the so-called kill zone — the space around the front line where troops are most vulnerable to attack — more than 10 miles in both directions, according to Anatol Lieven, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.  

“The Russians simply cannot accumulate the kind of mass and armor needed for a breakthrough,” Lieven told The Hill.

“Only a few months ago, but certainly a year ago, the majority of analysts were saying that by now Russia would have captured the whole of the Donbas,” he added, referring to the region that Russia sees as a “priority goal” to take. “In fact, Russia is still far, far from achieving that objective.”

That has allowed Ukraine to transition from a positional war — in which battle lines barely move, with neither side able to amass the forces necessary to make any serious push into the other’s held territory —........

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