Even as Ukrainian forces dig in to defend the roughly 400 square miles of Russian territory they have seized in the Kursk offensive, Kyiv finds itself increasingly concerned about a new and major military buildup in neighboring Belarus.

According to an August 25 statement from the Ukrainian foreign ministry, “Belarus’ armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, including Special Operations Forces, weapons, and military equipment, including tanks, artillery, [multiple launch rocket systems], air defense systems, and engineering equipment, in the Gomel region near Ukraine’s northern border under the guise of exercises. The presence of mercenaries of the former Wagner PMC was also recorded.”

Minsk has actually been supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine from its very outset, indeed prior to the invasion. Belarus permitted Russian forces to train on its territory for weeks beforehand. Those units never left the country, and Russian forces were able to mass on the Belarusian border with Ukraine prior to the invasion.

When the invasion began on Feb. 24, 2022 Russia fired artillery and launched aircraft and missiles, including ballistic missiles, from Belarusian territory. Russian troops crossed into Ukraine; the Belarus border offered the shortest distance to Kyiv. Belarus provided logistics support to the invaders inside Ukraine.

Although Russian units withdrew to Belarus two months after they had crossed the border,........

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