Foreign policy — and Iran — will define Trump’s presidency |
Foreign policy — and Iran — will define Trump’s presidency
With few exceptions, the economy is what defines a president’s legacy. For President Trump, now roughly one month into a war against Iran, it’s increasingly clear that foreign policy will be his legacy-defining issue.
Having come to office promising to put “America first,” Trump has put U.S. foreign policy at the center in reshaping the world in a way that will impact Americans for generations to come. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Iran, where the course of the war will define Trump’s place in history.
Put another way, if Iran emerges a weakened, angry state still capable of attacking its neighbors and holding the world energy supply hostage, Trump’s prestige will take an immense hit. Conversely, if after the guns fall silent, Iran has a new government that ends decades of hostility towards the U.S. and Israel, its support for terrorists and nuclear ambitions, Trump’s legacy will be an unprecedented contribution to global security.
One fundamental threat to the latter scenario is that war does not follow the American political calendar, and midterms are approaching.
AP-NORC polling reveals that a majority (59 percent) of Americans now believe the military action is “excessive,” while 45 percent are “extremely” or “very” concerned about rising gas prices. Regardless of the merits of the war — which polling by our organization shows Americans broadly support — the longer fighting rages, the more prominent those fears will be.
Trump’s options to address those concerns — forcing the Strait of Hormuz open or ending the war prematurely — carry their own significant risks.
If the U.S. walks away prematurely, leaving the regime severely degraded but its capabilities intact, Trump’s epitaph will be emblazoned with the now-popular saying “Trump always chickens out” and America’s geopolitical standing will take a hit. On the other hand, reopening the Strait with ground troops — as Trump is reportedly considering — and fighting until the regime is fully destroyed puts American soldiers at further risk, and will push oil prices higher.
To be sure, the most consequential impact of Trump’s aggressive foreign policy is its redrawing of the Middle East. Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have slammed Iran, downgraded ties, frozen assets and are pushing the U.S. — and Israel — not to let up until Iran is incapable of attacking them again.
Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in the Abraham Accords — on ice since Oct. 7, 2023 — is no longer as remote a possibility. Israel has become the region’s undisputed military hegemon, and the war has emphasized the benefits of aligning with the U.S. and Israel. In that same vein, if Gulf countries come to see the U.S. as the true global superpower, that will have advantages vis-à-vis Russia and China — both of whom are dependent on the Gulf.
Moreover, the war has reversed one of former President Obama’s most damaging legacies in the region: the 2015 Iran nuclear deal which Gulf allies felt emboldened Iran, in turn pushing them towards the arms of Russia and China, which Trump is on the cusp of undoing. Likewise, every country now sees that, far from being in decline, the U.S. remains the most important military and economic power in the world.
Domestically, polling will certainly fluctuate with the war’s duration, energy prices, casualties and perceptions of success. That last factor is critical, because the media has not given the U.S.-Israeli campaign the credit it deserves, weighing on sentiment.
Yet, as Nicholas Valencia, a geopolitical analyst noted, the war has been successful, particularly in permanently damaging the regime’s legitimacy. As Valencia put it, “The [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]’ ‘coup by succession’ has fractured the very coalition that held the Islamic Republic together” and exposed numerous areas of weakness that may bring down the regime now or in the near future.
Columnist Brett Stephens also put the war’s achievements — as well as its costs — into historical context. He underscored that “if past generations could see how well this war has gone compared with the ones they were compelled to fight at a frightening cost, they would marvel at their posterity’s comparative good fortune.”
To that point, even a ceasefire leaving the regime nominally intact should not be mistaken for failure. The U.S. and Israel have decimated the pillars on which the regime’s survival depends — military credibility, religious legitimacy, proxies and the internal myth of its own invincibility. Regimes do not always fall during the fighting; collapse can come months or years later. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime survived civil war for more than a decade only to fall in a week when ideal conditions came together.
Ultimately, whatever one thinks of Trump’s foreign policy generally, or this war specifically, the stakes could not be higher: for the Middle East, the U.S. and America’s leading role in the global order that’s existed since the end of World War II.
A successful outcome will cement Trump’s legacy and reaffirm the global centrality of American power, reminding adversaries from Moscow to Beijing that the U.S. has the strength and resolve to shape history.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. Saul Mangel is vice president at Schoen Cooperman Research.
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