Once unthinkable, Democrats now have a realistic shot at the Senate

One year ago, the question of Senate control in 2026 seemed settled. Indeed, unlike the House, which Democrats were long favored to win, the Senate map was far less hospitable. Now, an increasingly hostile political environment for Republicans has put the upper chamber squarely in play for Democrats. 

President Trump’s approval rating — 38 percent — sits at historic lows. As New York Times Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn pointed out, this is lower than in 2018, the last time Democrats had a blue wave election. Cohn noted that Trump’s numbers are lower than former Presidents Clinton and Obama in 1994 and 2010, respectively, two elections which saw Republicans win “sweeping midterm victories.” 

As a result, prediction markets — which had given Republicans a 70 percent chance to keep the Senate last May — now indicate a coin toss.  

Democrats rightly view this as an opening – but a blue wave is by no means guaranteed. In order to win the Senate, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats — a handful of which are in states Trump won — while holding their own competitive seats in states Trump carried, such as Michigan and Georgia. 

To that end, a number of seats Democrats need are increasingly tilting in their favor. In North Carolina, Democrats’ most likely flip, former Gov. Roy Cooper holds a 7-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, according to the RealClearPolitics aggregator. Cooper’s strength with independents — he leads Whatley by 16 points with this bloc, according to Quantus Insights — gives Democrats an opening in a state Trump won by 3 points in 2024. 

After the Tar Heel State, Maine is Democrats’ second potential flip. The........

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