Nikki Haley’s prediction last Friday that after the Iowa caucuses, there will be only two candidates left in the Republican presidential primaries – her and former President Donald Trump – underscored the significance the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is placing on a strong performance in that state.
It also foreshadows the very real possibility that if Haley’s “last stand” in Iowa fails, and she does not have a strong showing, then she, not Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), may be the candidate who doesn’t make it out of Iowa.
And while Haley’s best shot likely comes immediately after Iowa, in New Hampshire, where she figures to benefit from crossover votes from right-leaning independents and where Trump’s 26-point lead is considerably smaller than his 48-point lead nationally, per RealClearPolitics, the electoral calendar means it is highly unlikely that Haley survives a poor showing in the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses.
Indeed, after New Hampshire, the next two primaries are South Carolina, Haley’s home state, and Nevada. In both states, Trump enjoys a considerable polling lead, including a 52-point advantage in Nevada, and will benefit from more conservative electorates than New........