Last Monday, the New York Times published a series of polls showing former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamla Harris in the three “Sun Belt” swing states — Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.
Trump’s lead in those states exceeds the margins that either Trump or Harris had previously held in these same states. Further, in Arizona ( 5) and Georgia ( 4), Trump’s lead is also greater than the margin of error, with North Carolina ( 2) being slightly closer.
Yet just a few days after the New York Times released its data, Bloomberg-Morning Consult released swing state polls of their own. Per their survey, Harris is leading by 3 points in Arizona and 2 points in North Carolina, with Georgia tied.
It is normal for two similar polls to show slightly different results, but those swings between the two — 8 points in Arizona and 4 points in North Carolina and Georgia — are not trivial.
I cite these examples because they underscore a fundamental issue with forecasting this election. We really do not know, with any degree of precision, who is ahead and who is trailing in the presidential election.
This is particularly evident in the variations between swing state polls and national polls. In the swing states, the two candidates trade leads depending on the poll, suggesting that neither candidate has opened up daylight against the other.
However, national polls such as........