The first midterm primaries show enthusiastic Democratic turnout

Midterm primary season kicked off last Tuesday with key races in Texas and North Carolina. Although midterm primaries rarely produce major surprises, they often provide clues about the political environment heading into November.

Indeed, most of Tuesday’s contests were largely predictable. Rather, what stood out was turnout, particularly in Texas, suggesting that Democrats continue to benefit from an enthusiasm advantage.

In Texas, where Republicans have historically dominated primary turnout, 51 percent of all Senate primary votes were “cast in the Democratic race, compared with 49 percent in the Republican contest,” according to New York Times analysis.

This is a big reversal: Historically, the Times noted, “Republican primary voters outnumber Democrats by around 20 points in Texas” making Tuesday’s results “extraordinary,” given the relatively low profile of the Democratic candidates and the Republicans having their own expensive, high-profile race.

That race — the Republican Senate primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton — proved to be extraordinarily expensive. National Republicans were forced to spend $70 million to secure Cornyn a spot in May’s runoff election.

For now, at least, it appears that the investment was a smart decision. Cornyn actually received slightly more votes than Paxton, 42 percent to 41 percent, helping the four-term senator appear more competitive for the runoff. It is possible that by because Cornyn placed slightly ahead of Paxton, President Trump will feel compelled to endorse the incumbent, if for no other reason than that Cornyn has a better chance of beating Democratic challenger James Talarico (D) in the general election.

Typical for Republican primaries, Trump’s endorsement is the 1,000-pound gorilla, and the president said on Wednesday that he will back one of the candidates soon and ask the other to drop out. If Trump puts his weight behind Cornyn, Democrats’ hopes of winning their first statewide election in Texas since 1994 may take a hit.

Betting site Kalshi gives an 83 percent chance to a Cornyn-Talarico matchup, with the odds of Paxton vs. Talarico at just 16 percent. Likewise, Republicans’ odds of keeping that Senate seat rose from 63 to 67 percent on the back of Cornyn’s stronger-than-expected performance.

At the same time, polling suggests Talarico could be competitive against either Republican, although surveys generally show Cornyn with slightly better odds. Emerson College polling revealed a tied race between Paxton and Talarico — 46 percent each — whereas Cornyn held a 3-point lead (47 percent to 44 percent).

For Democrats, the focus turns to how effectively Talarico can use the 11-week headstart that his 6-point victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) affords him. Key to watch will be whether he can effectively consolidate the party’s coalition — particularly Black voters, an important part of Crockett’s base.

As much as Crockett said the right things publicly, exhorting Democrats to “rally around our nominees and win” the New York Times reported that in a private text exchange, the progressive U.S. representative “did not commit to campaigning with Talarico.”

To that end, assuming intra-party tensions do not become a considerable obstacle, the broader turnout patterns from Tuesday may be the most meaningful takeaway. The Democratic turnout advantage has been seen throughout off year and special elections, including recently in Texas, where a Democrat won a special election for the state house by 14 points in a district that Trump had carried by 17 points slightly more than one year ago.

Notably, it wasn’t only Texas that saw lopsided turnout for the Democrats. North Carolina did as well. Fifty-seven percent) of all votes cast in the Tar Heel state were in the Democratic primary, which saw incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) win over 90 percent of the vote, setting up a general election against former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R).

And while Democrats winning the Senate race in Texas is still a reach, the party should feel much more optimistic about the opportunity to flip the North Carolina seat that Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) retirement is opening up. Forecasting site Race to the White House rates the North Carolina race a “Lean D.”

Further, the most recent polling shows Cooper with a 10-point lead (50 percent to 40 percent) according to the Democratic-leaning firm Change Research. That margin is nearly identical to the RealClearPolitics polling average, suggesting that Cooper has a comfortable lead.

Ultimately, on a night with no major surprises in terms of the outcomes of Tuesday’s key races, outside of Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) losing his primary, the first major slate of midterm primaries was still extremely instructive.

Democrats’ ability to continue their voter enthusiasm advantage will be critical, especially if Republicans are forced to divert significant resources to keeping what should be safe seats. On the other side, will Trump’s impact be enough to ensure viable Republicans prevail — either in runoffs or by making sure the base comes out in full force in North Carolina?

Midterm primaries are just the beginning, but the terrain both parties will be navigating in the coming months is rapidly coming into shape.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”

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