The fault lines that could imperil Democrats

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The fault lines that could imperil Democrats

Democrats are hoping that a wave of anti-Trump sentiment will hand them control of the House in 2026, and potentially a return to the White House in 2028. However, fault lines are lurking within the party, any of which could undermine unity and weaken their electoral prospects.

To be sure, these potential landmines are not new. They are issues that have long divided Democrats within their party’s political spectrum. And while internal debates between ideological purity and electoral viability are not unique to Democrats — Republicans have faced them throughout the Trump era — the current political environment makes the stakes higher for Democrats.

Republicans are in power with an established leader, while Democrats, shut out of Congress and without a clear standard-bearer, face a vacuum at the top. For the past two years, opposition to President Trump enabled Democrats to paper over many of these divisions. Now, as primaries begin in earnest and the 2028 presidential process takes shape, Democrats will be forced to distinguish themselves and declare what they stand for — risking exposing divisions that could prove politically costly.

The most immediate and challenging fault line centers on immigration and the role of law enforcement. While Democrats across the spectrum have criticized Immigration and Customs Enforcement overreach and are relatively united in saying that ICE should be reined in, voters still support the mission of removing violent criminals, even if they think ICE has gone too far.

Moderates increasingly acknowledge the benefits of strong border security and support deporting migrants who commit violent crimes. Progressives, by contrast, have largely been mum on the need for tough border security and remain broadly opposed to deportations, placing them outside the views held by many voters.

If progressives’ calls to defund law enforcement more broadly gain traction within the party, Republicans will have little difficulty portraying Democrats as out of step with mainstream public opinion and as anti-law enforcement extremists.

The next major fault line involves wealth redistribution and taxes, particularly proposals to raise taxes on the wealthy. Wealth tax proposals, such as those debated in California — and supported by prominent progressive figures like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) — have energized the party’s progressive base. But moderates, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), have stridently opposed it, warning they could jeopardize economic growth and drive away investment.

While progressive calls for raising taxes on the ultra-wealthy play well on X or TikTok, they would be a considerable vulnerability and risk alienating moderate and independent voters, as Newsom knows. Aside from jeopardizing jobs — and being of questionable legality in some respects — Republicans will have little problem hammering all Democrats as socialists.

Health care — thrust into the national spotlight during the government shutdown last year — presents another significant divide, and Congress’ failure to reach a longtime solution means it will remain an issue. Virtually all Democrats — and many Republicans — agree that our health care system needs genuine change, but progressive efforts to pass universal health care will force moderates to oppose such drastic measures.

Many voters are dissatisfied with rising health care costs but are wary of sweeping government-run systems that could require higher taxes or disrupt existing coverage. Indeed, should progressives win this debate, moderate Democrats will have to answer to independents who may abhor the thought of health care being too expensive, yet do not want to see more money taken out of their own paychecks.

Finally, foreign policy has been and will continue to be a significant dividing line and remains a source of deep internal disagreement. Using Israel as an example, progressives’ anti-Israel positions — which, at times, cross into overt antisemitism — will cause moderate Democrats, most of whom represent districts with sizable Jewish populations — to recoil.

More broadly, progressive skepticism toward traditional national security commitments risks clashing with voters who continue to support a strong American role abroad. These divisions could create vulnerabilities if Democrats are unable to present a coherent and unified foreign policy vision.

Ultimately, if Democrats want to win in 2026 or 2028, they must find a way to smooth over these fault lines. Candidates who appeal primarily to the ideological base may struggle to connect with the broader electorate necessary to win national or statewide races. Perhaps the only candidates who can bridge the party’s divides — while winning national or statewide elections — are those who appeal to the overwhelming majority of potential voters who are considerably more centrist.

In other words, if Democrats cannot find a way to overcome these potential landmines, they will end up advancing candidates who may do well with the ideological base but are extremely unappealing to the wider electorate. But, if they unite behind candidates who believe in common sense, middle of the road positions on key issues, it’s likely that they will be able to find their way back into power.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”

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