Despite Trump's efforts, his address didn't change already set minds |
Despite Trump’s efforts, his address didn’t change already set minds
President Trump’s State of the Union address was, by most measures, strategically focused and disciplined. Trump sought to frame his presidency as bringing in a new era of American strength and prosperity. Hearkening back to Ronald Reagan’s “morning in America,” Trump spoke decisively about the “golden age” the U.S. was entering under his administration.
Trump also drew contrasts between Republicans and Democrats, highlighting differences on immigration, economic policy and the role of government.
That said, early polling suggests that even though the speech was well received by those who watched, it did little to change the broader political landscape — a reminder that a well-executed speech does not always translate into a political windfall.
A CNN flash poll conducted immediately after Trump’s speech found that 64 percent of those who watched rated it positively. Similarly, an identical 64 percent said that Trump’s policies would move the country in the right direction, while 62 percent said the president’s policies would move the economy in the right direction. And the “share who believed Trump has the right priorities” jumped 10 points, from 44 percent before the speech to 54 percent immediately after.
However, these numbers should be interpreted cautiously, as CNN noted that the sample skewed 13 points more Republican than the country overall, thus a more favorable view is to be expected. Moreover, while those numbers seem impressive, comparisons to Trump’s 2019 State of the Union suggest a diminished impact.
After his 2019 address, 76 percent felt Trump would move the economy in the right direction, 14 points higher than after this year’s speech, and there was a 12-point decline in viewers who said they had a positive reaction to his speech generally. Whether those declines are due to the speech or the fact that economic and affordability concerns are more prominent than seven years ago, it underscores the restricted political upside Trump now faces.
Affordability remains central to the challenge that Trump faces. Although 50 percent of viewers said they had “a lot” or “some” confidence that Trump would lower the cost of living, a sizable 40 percent said they have little or no confidence. This skepticism underscores broader public opinion: A majority (57 percent) disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy thus far, according to recent ABC-Washington Post-Ipsos polling.
On immigration, there is a more mixed picture. Sixty-four percent say Trump’s policies will move the country in the right direction, but that figure is 2 points lower than his March 2025 address to Congress and 7 points lower than his February 2019 speech.
On top of that, there is no denying that the conversation has shifted. The open border and immigrants living in the country illegally were key issues that helped Trump get elected. Although concerns about border security remain significant, public attention has increasingly turned to the overreach of Immigration and Customs Enforcement and heavy-handed deportation tactics.
It is clear that the administration has work to do if Trump wants to shift the political odds in his favor ahead of November. To that end, the question of to what extent, if any, Trump’s address will help Republicans in the upcoming midterms remains an open one.
Sixty-two percent of speech viewers say Trump’s policies will move the economy forward, suggesting that some voters found Trump’s case on addressing costs to be compelling. But as much as Trump declared affordability to be handled, it isn’t and voters remain concerned.
At the same time, Trump’s speech did little to improve perceptions that America is increasingly divided. Ahead of the State of the Union, two-thirds of U.S. adults said “divided” was the best way to describe the country today, according to CBS News, sentiment Trump paid little lip service to and may have exacerbated.
Taken together, any honest assessment of President Trump’s State of the Union address requires keeping multiple thoughts in one’s head simultaneously. The president energized his base with a speech heavy on themes that many Republicans care about: immigration, the economy, as well as the revival of American strength and prosperity.
Also true is that Trump likely did very little either to expand his coalition by swaying independents or boost his own struggling approval ratings among more skeptical voters. He’s currently sitting at just 41 percent per the New York Times aggregator, underscoring the persistence of entrenched views.
State of the Union addresses rarely change public opinion on their own; more often, they reinforce existing dynamics. Trump’s speech seems to have done just that: energized his base but did not move opinions of him or his leadership, nor did he heal any divisions.
With affordability and economic concerns continuing to dominate voters’ priorities, the ultimate political impact will depend less on rhetoric and more on whether voters perceive real improvements in their day-to-day lives in the months ahead.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
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