As wars rage across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Beijing is once again rattling its saber at Taiwan. In doing so, it has drawn attention back to East Asia with a reminder that the world is at risk of an even more destructive war than those it is already facing. A battle over Taiwan would be disastrous for all sides. To prevent one, the U.S. must ensure that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) also views the cost of a conflict as unacceptably high.
The risk that Beijing attempts to forcefully “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China increases significantly if it becomes confident that three conditions have been satisfied. The first is that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has established sufficient local military superiority to win a fight with the U.S. and its allies in the region surrounding Taiwan. The second is that China will be able to contain the conflict to their chosen theater. Finally, that the economic fallout will be minimal.
American planners are focused on turning Taiwan into an “indigestible porcupine” to counter the first. This is necessary, but it is not enough. Focusing solely on the defense of Taiwan cedes the initiative to China, allowing them to gather their forces and focus them on their objective.
If the U.S. truly wishes to deter Beijing, it must make it clear that........