Key things to watch for in Florida special election on Trump’s turf 

Democrats in Florida are jockeying for a rare opportunity to flip a state House district that includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, as the party looks to galvanize voters and maintain its overperformance streak ahead of November.  

Democrat Emily Gregory is competing against Republican Jon Maples for a state House seat in Palm Beach County. Republican Mike Caruso previously held the seat until Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tapped him to become the county clerk and comptroller last summer. 

While Trump won the district in 2024, the entire county narrowly backed former Vice President Harris — and the contest offers Democrats a unique chance to make inroads in Trump’s backyard. The race is one of a handful of local special elections Florida will hold Tuesday.

Here are the key things to watch for in the special election on the president’s turf:

Competitive statehouse seat in Mar-a-Lago’s backyard up for grabs

Both parties are closely watching the special election for Florida House District 87, where Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach is located. The resort is the president’s primary residence, and he stays there regularly when not at the White House.

Gregory, a health fitness small business owner, is running against Trump-backed Maples, a financial advisor. Maples has faced questions over his residency, though the GOP candidate has said that he lives in the district.

The state House district voted for Trump by about 9 percentage points in 2024, according to Florida Politics, while Caruso more handily won the district last cycle by almost 20 points. The entire county backed Harris by less than a point in the presidential election.

The Florida state House district is represented by both Reps. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) and Brian Mast (R-Fla.) in Congress.  

National figures, groups seek to sway voters 

National political leaders and groups from both sides of aisle have waded into the race, underscoring how Republicans and Democrats alike are closely monitoring Tuesday’s elections. Special elections, particularly those down the ballot, generate less turnout than primary and general elections.  

Since Trump’s 2024 victory, Democrats have better mobilized voters, making GOP efforts to turn out their base in the Florida contests all the more important.

“Jon is a very successful Businessman and Civic Leader, who is known and loved, and also endorsed by so many of my Palm Beach County friends, including by Great State Representative ‘MAGA’ Meg Weinberger,” Trump wrote in a social media post endorsing Maples. “Jon will be a terrific Legislator!”  

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), who’s running for governor, has appeared with Maples on the campaign trail and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier (R) endorsed the Republican candidate.

Democrats, meanwhile, have also invested in Gregory’s bid to flip the seat.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) supported the Florida Democrat in the race, with DLCC President Heather Williams calling her “exactly the kind of candidate who can defy the odds and connect with voters as a small business owner and mom” in a statement this month. 

Retired Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a key witness in Trump’s first impeachment trial who is seeking to unseat Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) this fall, hosted a virtual fundraiser for Gregory earlier this month. Frankel has also endorsed the small business owner. 

Contests offer another test of Democratic enthusiasm

The race will serve as the latest test of the Democratic Party’s efforts to sustain voter enthusiasm heading into the November general election. Recent special elections and primaries have so far shown the party overperforming — and even flipping a number of state legislature seats across the country.

Early indicators suggest voters are eager to vote Tuesday. Data from Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections showed close to 18,000 Floridians having voted early, meaning 15 percent of active eligible voters have cast their ballots in District 87 race. 

In welcomed news for the Florida GOP, data from county showed that both parties have turned out to vote ahead of Tuesday’s race. About 7,400 Democrats have voted early while close to 7,200 Republicans have done the same.

A separate roughly 3,100 people who had no party affiliation or were classified as “other” also voted in the early period.  

The Palm Beach County special election isn’t the only contest on Tuesday. Voters in parts of Polk and Hillsborough Counties will also vote in elections for another state House district and one state Senate seat.

Florida’s 14th Senate District and 51st House District seats were both most recently held by Republicans and are expected to stay red. But a Democratic upset in any of these three districts would add another notch to the party’s belt as they seek to maintain momentum heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

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