Democrats are sounding the alarm that former President Trump’s harsh rhetoric in the home stretch of a tight presidential race could portend a repeat of the mass political violence that broke out among his supporters in January 2021.

But national security experts say there’s reason to believe a repeat of the Jan. 6 insurrection is unlikely.

For the first time ever, the Secretary of Homeland Security has designated the upcoming Jan. 6, 2025 counting and certification of electoral votes in Washington, D.C. as a National Special Security Event (NSSE), which will ensure massive federal, state and local resources are deployed around the Capitol.

There’s also a different commander-in-chief. Unlike Trump, who hindered efforts to call in the National Guard to quell violence carried out by rioters at the Capitol, experts say President Biden would be unlikely to standby in the face of political violence.

And the prosecution of hundreds of rioters – including stiff sentences for the leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers – has weakened the militia-style groups that helped orchestrate the Jan. 6 riots.

Amy Cooter, an antigovernment extremist expert at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism, and Counterterrorism of the Middlebury Institute, said the threat of election violence remains a concern.

But she said the conditions for political violence appears lower than in late 2020, a particularly tense year because of the George Floyd protests and coronavirus pandemic.

“I don't think we're seeing right now the level of organization that we saw pre-January 6,” she said.

But Cooter explained the situation could change fast after the election and depending on the post-election rhetoric.

“These landscapes are so volatile that [the assessment] today could dramatically change based on something that happens later,” she added. “But as of right now, I am most concerned with sort of small outbreaks of violence, not like we saw at January 6.”

There are concerns of violence from both sides.

Trump has now survived two assassination attempts, the first in July and the second in September. The first gunman, Matthew Crooks, was killed after firing a rifle into a Pennsylvania Trump rally, grazing the GOP presidential candidate’s ear. The FBI has not identified a clear motive.

The second gunman, Ryan Routh, was spotted with a gun at Trump’s Florida golf course before Secret Service agents fired at him. Routh has been identified by the FBI as having expressed a strong desire to kill Trump, who he sees as unfit for office.

Cooter said instances of violence from the left appear to be more isolated than organized, compared to right-wing actors.

“There's a smaller possibility ... that we could see similar........

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