The next 2 years will be a bumpy ride for Democratic presidential candidates

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The next 2 years will be a bumpy ride for Democratic presidential candidates

Two years before any caucus or primary contests, the Democratic presidential nomination campaign through 2028 is wide open and subject to lots of change. The contest is as volatile as President Trump’s mood swings.

An early Yahoo News poll has the field spread out all over the map. California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris lead the field in the high teens. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) register in the low teens, while Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) just misses the double digit cut.

Everyone else is in single digits. There may be a cast of thousands. Other Democrats considering candidacies include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) might also enter the fray.

There’s still lots of time and opportunity for the other contenders to make their moves. The first delegate contest is almost two years away, which is a lifetime for most Democratic voters.

Presidential primary polls two years out are as stable as sandcastles built on a beach just before the tide comes in. My party’s electorate will ultimately make a hard choice after they watch thousands of news shows, debates, online feeds and broadcast TV ads. There will be lots of dramatic twists and turns over time and my purpose here is to explore the possibilities.

Trump has a perverse impact on the nation and the Democratic quest for the White House. The more he divides the nation, the more the Democratic field grows. Kelly, a decorated combat veteran, recently announced that he was considering the race after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth challenged his patriotism.

Then there’s the curious case of Harris whom Trump beat in November 2024 on his way to the Oval Office for the second time. Her 2024 presidential race makes her the virtual Democratic incumbent which is not a good thing to be with an electorate hungry for change.

Since she was her party’s standard bearer the last time out, she should enjoy a big advantage over all the other hopefuls. But her failure to defeat Trump has cast a dark cloud over her candidacy. That cloud appears more ominous as his excesses during his second term intensify.

His incessant pounding of her former boss Joe Biden doesn’t make her path to the nomination any easier. During her book tour last year, she distanced herself from him; something she failed to do in 2024.

The former Veep is in the upper tier, but her standing probably has to do with her greater name recognition than her opponents. Then again, Newsom is in the same place. The difference between the two of them could be the knockout results of their homefield primary in California.

After the early primaries and caucuses, the contest will surely become a two-person race. An overwhelming majority of my party’s partisans, eight in ten, want a change at the top of the ticket. An alternative candidate might have an edge as the field inevitably thins.

The same principle applies if the contest becomes a two-person campaign between Harris and a progressive challenger like Ocasio-Cortez. Sen. Bernie’s Sanders’s (I-Vt.) strong showings in the 2016 and 2020 contests evince a vibrant liberal base within the party which has grown as a reaction to The Donald’s reactionary regime.

The flashpoint in this establishment versus progressive scenario could be a battle over the wisdom of Medicare for All which enjoys the support of most of my fellow party members. Sanders advocated for Medicare for All, and Ocasio-Cortez supports the plan, which still makes the party establishment queasy.

Finally, the electorate hungers for change and dislikes insider Washington. This could boost the fortunes of one of the many governors in the race, who will try to portray themselves as outsiders. Newsom has already earned his place at the grownups’ table. Shapiro heads up a vital battleground state that Harris lost in 2024.

Trump promised to drain the Potomac River swamp ground but has instead filled it with even more dangerous critters. The vitriolic distaste for the denizens of the nation’s capital after Richard Nixon’s vile Watergate debacle created an appetite for an obscure southern governor, Jimmy Carter. Kentucky chief executive Beshear could fill the bill.

Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be bumpy over the next couple of years. The Democratic presidential race will be a wild ride through high hopes and dashed dreams.

Brad Bannon is a national Democratic strategist and CEO of Bannon Communications. He writes weekly for The Hill and hosts the popular progressive podcast on power, politics and policy, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon.

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