For Democrats, control of the Senate now in play

“This may be the most important election in our lifetime.” We say that every two or four years, but this year it looks more true than ever. Because the 2026 midterms are the first opportunity to put the brakes on Donald Trump.

True, Trump’s not on the ballot in 2026. But he will be the central player in every House and Senate race. The midterms are, in effect, a referendum on the first year of Trump’s second term. And Democrats will be making the case that only by regaining control of Congress can they clip Trump’s wings before he sends the military into any more cities, drives the price of gas and groceries any higher, assassinates any more foreign leaders, or starts another war.

Most political analysts agree that Democrats have a good chance of winning back the House. With Republicans today holding a slim 218-214 majority in the House, Democrats have to flip only three seats to regain control. The odds historically favor the opposition party in midterm elections, but Republicans are further hobbled by resignations of 34 members and the failure of Trump’s redistricting plan to give Republicans as many new seats as they’d hoped.

The online betting site Kalshi, in fact, gives Democrats an 83 percent chance of taking the House, while giving Republicans 17 percent chance.

The Senate is a different story. With Republicans now holding a 53 to 47 majority, Democrats have to flip four seats to regain control. Until now, that has been considered unrealistic, but suddenly that grim prognosis has changed.

For Democrats, the U.S. Senate is now clearly in play in six states: Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Montana.

Until recently, with Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) appeared to be coasting to reelection. Then former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) jumped into the race. Peltola’s the last Democrat elected statewide in Alaska. According to the New York Times, six out of eight Alaskan polls show Peltola with a slight lead over Sullivan.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has always defied the odds. This time, Democrats think they can finally topple her with either Gov. Janet Mills (D), favored by the Democratic establishment, or outsider oysterman Graham Platner (D). Last week’s Pan Atlantic Research poll shows Platner beating Collins 44 to 40 percent, with Mills in a dead heat against Collins, 44 to 44 percent.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) is retiring, and popular former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is the Democratic nominee. He will face former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley (R). Cooper leads in every poll released so far.

If there’s one Democrat capable of winning Ohio, it is former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), elected three times statewide. To the delight of Democrats, he agreed to challenge Sen. Jon Husted (R) in 2026.

Every few years, Democrats get all excited about winning Texas, only to go down in flames (remember Beto O’Rourke?). But this time, they’re more excited than ever with 36-year-old seminarian and state Rep. James Talarico (D), who won the Democratic primary for Senate amid record turn-out and strong support from Latino voters. In November, he’ll be up against either Sen. John Cornyn (R) or Attorney General Ken Paxton (R). Talarico is favored to beat Paxton, but he’ll also be a strong challenger to Cornyn, who has little going for him.

Montana is the strangest case of all. A week ago, nobody would have talked about Montana as a possibility for Democrats. But just minutes before the filing deadline, in a pre-arranged political hat trick, Republican Sen. Steve Daines dropped out, leaving just enough time for his ally Kurt Alme (R) to jump in. That appeared to leave Democrats without a serious candidate for Senate — until they took another look at Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana, running as an Independent. Bodnar’s no Democrat, but he’s no Trumper, either. He would probably join Independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King in voting with Democrats in the Senate.  

So in just one week, the political landscape has improved significantly for Democrats. They now have a great chance of taking back the House and — if they can hold on to Georgia and Michigan, and flipping four of the above states — a good chance of also taking back the Senate.

That assumes, of course, that Trump doesn’t declare an emergency and cancel the midterms. Unfortunately, there’s also a chance of that.

Bill Press is host of “The Bill Press Pod.” He is the author of “From the Left: A Life in the Crossfire.”

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More Opinions - Campaign News

2 states approved permanent standard time. Others are hoping to do the same

5 takeaways from Trump’s Iran presser at Doral

GOP leaders, Trump see tensions flare over Senate filibuster

Trump job approval sinks in new poll

Democrats vow to shut down Senate over Iran conflict

Trump tells Republicans the SAVE America Act will ‘guarantee the midterms’

Noem’s ouster could pave way to reopen shuttered Homeland Security Department

Pendulum swings back on economy amid Iran conflict

Group that defeated Trump’s tariffs at Supreme Court challenges latest round

Gas, oil prices worry GOP as Trump floats taking over Strait of Hormuz

Top Iranian security official to Trump: ‘Be careful not to get eliminated ...

Live updates: Hegseth says Iran faces ‘most intense day’ of attack

Don’t expect Trump to make a deal with Iran’s new leader any time soon

Putin offers Mojtaba Khamenei ‘unwavering support’

Democrats eye extending foreign bribery statute of limitations

The return-to-the-office trend backfires

What to know about the crowded House race to replace Greene in Georgia

GOP lawmaker makes formal switch to independent

The Hill Podcasts – Morning Report

© The Hill