Florida wins after Trump takeover leave Democrats feeling brighter about Sunshine State

Florida has been widely seen as a red state, particularly since the emergence of Donald Trump in 2016 as a presidential winner. 

Trump won Florida in 2016, in 2020 and in 2024, and over that time period saw the Sunshine State become a center of the MAGA-universe.

But a series of recent Democratic wins — from a high profile flip this week in the district home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate to a recent upset in the Miami mayoral race — are forcing both parties to confront the reality that the political ground may not be as settled as it seemed.

“It doesn’t mean everything but it means something,” said Steve Schale, the Democratic strategist who ran former President Barack Obama’s operation in the state. “I still think Florida is very hard at the statewide level but we have a more motivated electorate than we had in 2024. 

“I do think more places are going to be in play,” Schale added. “More voters are open to us making our argument to them.” 

The reason Floridians are more open to hearing from Democrats, argue Schale and other Democratic strategists in the state, is unhappiness with Trump’s handling of the economy and his administration’s policies more broadly. 

Democrats had been feeling bullish about the shift since Eileen Higgins won the mayoral race, becoming the first Democrat to win that office in decades.

Tuesday’s victory by Emily Gregory in the Mar-a-Lago district, and Brian Nathan’s upset in another district in the state, they argue, provides the latest evidence. 

Fernand Amandi, the Democratic strategist who serves as an adviser to David Jolly, the former GOP congressman running for governor as a Democrat, and Eliott Rodriguez, the longtime South Florida anchorman running to flip a House seat that has largely been in Republican hands, said the wins are significant. 

The takeaways, Amandi said, are “now indisputable.” 

“The reason is that we are now seeing in Florida what is happening everywhere else across the country, which is a double-digit Democratic over-performance in every single election since Donald Trump has retaken the presidency,” Amandi said.

“It doesn’t mean that Florida is now a purple state or a blue state, but it does mean for the first time, I think since 2018, you can start to now say that Florida is back in play,” he said. 

He pointed to Rodriguez as a good example of a candidate who can win in a state like Florida. He’s “demographically perfect for the district: he’s trusted, respected, a truth-teller and has support and fans on all sides of the spectrum,” Amandi said. 

Republicans are outwardly confident they can keep the state more of a solid red, yet there’s also anxiety among GOP operatives — even those who worked for Trump — about the president’s approval numbers.

“There’s a lot of nervousness among Republicans with the fact that he’s so underwater with only seven months to go for the midterms because they’re on the ballot,” said a former Trump campaign adviser. “He’s not.” 

“There’s no real chance of losing the state, let’s say at the governor level,” the former adviser said. “Florida is such a red state right now, has gone that way in the last 10 years that it’s hard to see Florida…even turning purple again.” 

Still, the Republican acknowledged the recent elections were “a sign of unpopularity.” 

Rep. Byron Daniels (R-Fla.), who is the frontrunner to succeed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race, also called on Republicans to “redouble our efforts” after Tuesday night’s wins by Democrats. 

In an interview with The Hill, Jolly said Democrats shouldn’t get the wrong message from Tuesday night’s victory. 

“…We should be cautious and understand — I think what we’re seeing are people fleeing Republican leadership,” Jolly said. “Whether or not they’re embracing Democrats is to be determined. 

“I think they’re giving us a very fragile license in a moment of dramatic change where people are desperate for new leadership, and they’re willing to trust us as Democrats,” he said. 

Democrats’ voter affiliation has taken a hit in recent years, while Republican affiliation in the state has grown, with the GOP blowing past Democrats by almost 1,500,000 more as of last year. 

“The registration difference is the challenge,” said John Morgan, the Democratic megadonor and prominent injury lawyer who is based in Florida. “But clearly the chaos and cruelty is having its impact not only here but across the country.”

The state’s Democratic Party has tried to seize on even the smallest triumphs, putting forth a string of efforts since the 2024 election cycle — including the Pendulum Initiative, a year-round organizing program that party officials have said contributed to significant gains in red congressional districts. There are also efforts underway to lure more rural voters to their side, party officials have said. 

But strategists say they also need help from the national Democratic Party apparatus. 

“What Democrats in the state of Florida now need is rescue, resources and infrastructure help from the national party and from national donors to say, ‘It’s OK, it’s safe to swim in Florida’s political waters again. You’re not just going to be throwing your money away here,” Amandi said.

Schale said voters in the state are a more motivated electorate than they were even a couple of years ago. 

Now, he said “there’s an opportunity to have a conversation with voters that we didn’t have a couple of years ago.

“But we also have to realize they’re not voting for us because they want us to be the opposite of Republicans,” Schale added. “They want people who are going to go to Tallahassee and Washington and solve problems.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Montana Senate candidate says he will introduce bill to draft Graham if elected

Senate Democrats defeat amendment to require photo ID to vote

Senate agrees to fund TSA and most of DHS, but not ICE

Platner holds commanding lead over Mills in Maine Senate race: Poll

Judge asked to take Trump name off Kennedy Center

Here are Iran’s 5 conditions for ending war after rejecting US ceasefire plan

Trump disapproval highest in both terms: Fox News poll

House passes measure to fund DHS as senators struggle to reach deal

Trump expected to announce action to solve TSA problems amid DHS shutdown

Cooper leads Whatley by 8 points in NC Senate race: Survey 

Trump slams ‘terrible’ Fox News polls

Democrats block Homeland Security funding just before Easter recess

Bipartisan lawmakers set to unveil bill to reopen DHS, bar ICE from wearing ...

Trump says ‘military wanted’ White House ballroom: ‘That was supposed to ...

Rogan: Democrats were tougher on border than Trump

Trump to sign executive order to fund TSA agents amid DHS shutdown

Hegseth: Military chaplains will no longer display rank

Luna hosts Russian lawmakers to mixed GOP reactions, outrage from others

© The Hill