Democrats Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore face challenges on road to White House

As Democrats begin to size up the 2028 presidential field, some of the party’s most closely watched figures face a more immediate test: reelection in 2026.

Governors, including Josh Shapiro (D) of Pennsylvania and Wes Moore (D) of Maryland, must first secure another term before fully turning their full attention to a White House run.

The dynamic presents a delicate dance for the candidates, with voters quick to question whether politicians are focused on the job in front of them or eyeing something larger.

“A strong showing at home in 2026 is the prerequisite for relevance in 2028,” Democratic strategist Anthony Coley said. “Moore and Shapiro can have all the national ambitions they want, but if home state voters feel like an afterthought, they’ll show you who’s actually in charge.”

For Shapiro and Moore, in particular, the dynamic creates a built-in constraint — and limits the kind of overt positioning for a national run seen among some of their rivals.

Their reelection bids require a focus on local issues and their constituents back home, effectively tying them to their states as other contenders — including former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, both of whom are out of public office, build their national profiles and more openly test the waters.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who leaves office in January after being term-limited, has also spent time expanding his national profile in recent months, including on a regular podcast and a book tour that has made headlines. He also was behind a successful redistricting effort last year, where he was able to generate a national list of donors and praise from the pundit class.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), whose second term ends at the end of 2027, is already openly engaging the 2028 conversation, and even taking on Vice President Vance, who is expected to be the Republican nominee in 2028.

While Shapiro and Moore have robust leads in the polls and strong campaign bank accounts — and are widely expected to win — the demands of their reelection campaigns do more than shape their timeline. They also serve as an early test — one in which every decision and every line of attack could resurface in a presidential campaign.

For Shapiro, that means navigating a competitive landscape in Pennsylvania, where both Republicans and factions within his party are already testing his record and message.

For Moore, the pressure is different: In deep-blue Maryland, he has had to contend with budget tensions and a redistricting fight that has faced resistance and has left him with more to prove at home before stepping onto the national stage.

Democratic strategist Hyma Moore, who is not related to the Maryland governor, said a state like Pennsylvania poses its own risks, with multiple voices shaping the political environment — including Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who has at times been a critic of Shapiro’s and has said the governor is driven by “political ambition.”

As a result, the strategist said, “You’re going to have a difficult time campaigning for folks outside” the state.

“One, you just don’t have the time, and you don’t want your Republican opposition to say you care more about Arizona than you do Pennsylvania,” Hyma Moore said.

In Maryland, the strategist said the governor “has got to put up a higher win percentage” because he’s “got to resolidify a lot of his Democratic base and political power.”

But some Democrats argue the demands of the campaigns can also be an advantage, particularly on policy.

“Focusing locally keeps them from raising their profile in early states but it can create opportunities to promote policies at home they can later talk about scaling nationally,” said Democratic strategist Basil Smikle, who served as the executive director of the New York State Democratic Party.

And the wear-and-tear of a state-run campaign also can serve as valuable preparation for a national campaign — particularly against what is expected to be a crowded Democratic field.

“It’s helpful because the candidates will be in great shape,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons said. “It’s like a basketball team coming off the bench cold versus one that played a game last night.”

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale agreed, saying that it can foreshadow “how well a candidate and their operation can handle the length and crucible of a presidential campaign.”

“If handled correctly, it can and should be a springboard that shows how your campaign skills, organization and policies can win in a competitive state,” Vale said. “If it devolves into infighting, underperformance, or inability to effectively respond to attacks, it is an early warning that you may not be ready for the prime-time lights.”

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