Now that the U.S. has approved $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, many are urging the White House to finally define its goals in the war. If a Ukrainian defeat is not an alternative, and a stalemate will just continue the slaughter indefinitely, then the only remaining option is a Russian defeat. But what exactly would that entail?
Essentially, there are two scenarios that would constitute a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat. The White House must settle on one of the options and pursue it vigorously. That takes political will and decisiveness, as neither of the scenarios requires genius to be imagined or executed.
The first scenario, Russia’s complete defeat, would involve its armed forces getting battered on the battlelines, retreating and surrendering all the territory Russia has occupied since 2014, including all of the Donbas and Crimea. Were this to happen, Russian President Vladimir Putin would be discredited and very likely deposed. The Russians would have to, and would want to, sue for peace.
Such a resounding defeat would be premised on greatly increased supplies from the West of all the weapons and ammunition Ukraine needs to protect itself from Russian bombs and to roll back Russian forces. That’s possible technically, but only if Western leaders are willing to act with vigor and vision and persuade their citizens that small sacrifices today will pay huge dividends tomorrow.
The consequences of such a defeat would be beneficial for Ukrainians, Russians and the rest of the world. Ukraine would survive. Russia would finally be rid of a genocidal, war-mongering dictator who has........