HALIFAX—Whatever you may think about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances of becoming prime minister—the proverbial snowball in hell comes to mind—he keeps trying to find a way to stay in the game against Mark Carney.

It is no easy task. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s lead over Poilievre in the polls keeps growing, recently hitting 13 points. If that spread were to hold in an election, it would be a debacle for the Conservatives.

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Rumours persist that more Conservative MPs may be planning to join the handful of former colleagues who’ve already defected to the Liberals. 

And now with last week’s floor-crossing of NDP MP Lori Idlout, there is a real possibility that Carney may soon be leading a majority government. If the Liberals were to win all the pending byelections next month, Poilievre’s Conservatives could be looking at years—not months—before the next election.

Despite all that, Poilievre continues to work at reinventing himself. The goal is to improve his party’s current dismal levels—just 35 per cent, according to a recent Leger poll—of support amongst Canadians.

The Conservative leader’s first attempt to improve his image was to drop the “junkyard dog” approach he took to leading the official opposition.

For quite some time, Poilievre was what the late federal cabinet minister John Crosbie once called “a niggling nabob of negativity.” He was the master of the nasty jibe, king of the personal low-blow. That approach had some success when then-prime minister Justin Trudeau led the Liberals. 

But when Carney—with his illustrious career in banking—replaced the unpopular Trudeau, Poilievre’s slurs and slanders began to miss the mark. 

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In fact, Poilievre sounded more like a “niggling nabob” than the leader of a government-in-waiting. So, he moderated and redirected his public pronouncements. They inched more toward policy, and away from personal and partisan attacks.

In trading his hit-list for a to-do list, Poilievre has looked somewhat more prime ministerial. He is using information rather than invective to score points. For that, he deserves credit.

Poilievre’s critique of Liberal fiscal policy is a case in point. After 10 years in power, the Liberals have doubled the deficit and added 100,000 jobs to the federal public service, according to the opposition leader.

Those are sobering facts for any Canadian worried about government spending. With the national debt now topping the trillion-dollar mark, the size of both the deficit and the federal bureaucracy will have increasing traction as political problems. 

Beyond adjusting his political style, Poilievre is now trying to do something about another of his perceived weak points in his lack of experience in representing this country on the international stage. That criticism is based on the fact that Poilievre has no professional experience outside of politics. 

This is a particularly damaging criticism, since Carney has a resumé full of executive and international experience and accomplishment. As the governor of two central banks, he had a place at the “big table” long before he entered politics just last year. That wealth of international experience sets him apart from Poilievre.

Poilievre’s latest self-reinvention, including trips to Germany and the United Kingdom, is aimed at shoring up his credentials as a statesman, possibly to improve his chances in the next federal election. 

In the U.K., Poilievre met with political and business leaders, including the leader of that country’s Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch, and her shadow foreign minister. He also met with members of the British House of Commons and the House of Lords. He used these meetings to push for trade free of tariffs.

Poilievre is headed to the United States this week on a trip that is part goodwill tour and part economic mission. Although he will visit states like Texas and Michigan, his itinerary does not include a stop in Washington, D.C. 

His message to Americans is that the economies of the U.S. and Canada need to remain closely integrated. He will also repeat the appeal he made in Europe for free trade, free of tariffs. 

There is no doubt that Poilievre’s journey to the U.S. will create some media coverage for the Conservative leader. He has no doubt seen how much positive press Carney’s international travel has produced, particularly when he has come away with big trade deals, as the prime minister did in India. 

But will Poilievre’s pitch for tight relations with the U.S. be a hit at home? It might. But the answer to that is more uncertain than many people think. Poilievre’s pitch is, after all, calling for Canada and the U.S. to remain economically joined at the hip. That is certainly how it has been, and the Conservative leader clearly wants that arrangement to continue—albeit without the tariffs.

Poilievre’s problem is that Carney has largely sold Canadians on a very different approach to the U.S. The prime minister declared that U.S. President Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs against Canadian exports like steel, aluminum, and auto parts amounted to a crossing of the political Rubicon. It marked a “rupture,” and not a “transition,” in the bilateral relationship. 

As a result of that rupture, Carney has laid out a new path forward for Canada. The country would diversify its trade away from an unhealthy and now unreliable dependence on trade with the U.S. That is why Carney is travelling abroad to drum up new customers for Canadian goods. 

So, what’s the pointy end of the spear for Poilievre’s pitch to stick with American trade and deeply integrated economies? According to recent polling, 55 percent of Canadians see America as a security threat. 

Why are Canadians more inclined to follow Carney on this file than they are to embrace Poilievre’s pitch for what is essentially the status quo? 

No mystery there. Trump has simply ruined America’s reputation with Canadians. 

Trump has insulted Canada by declaring it is not a real country. He has insulted Canadians with his lust to turn this country into America’s 51st state. He has angered Canadians with his absurd declaration that China will “eat Canada alive, completely devour it.” And he has horrified Canadians with his illegal war in Iran that is killing bad guys and school girls alike.

As long as Trump is in the White House—as long as this bigoted, belligerent bully is calling the shots—moving closer to the U.S. will be a non-starter in Canada.

In his latest political makeover, Poilievre would do well to bear that in mind. 

Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist.

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