Harper Conservatism is passé, and so is Poilievre |
HALIFAX—It is time the Conservative Party of Canada brushed up on its Otto von Bismarck.
It was the former German chancellor who defined politics as the art of the possible. What the facts suggest is that it is not possible for the Conservatives to win the government under the leadership of Pierre Poilievre. Not against Liberal Leader Mark Carney.
It is not just that Poilievre has a record of losing, which includes the most recent federal election and his own Ontario seat.
It is not just that Carney leads Poilievre by an embarrassing margin in the polls as Canadians’ preferred choice as prime minister. How bad is it for Poilievre? Some surveys have found Carney to be over 25 points ahead of his hapless Conservative rival.
It is not just that yet another Conservative Ontario MP, Marilyn Gladu, has recently bolted to the Liberals, further reducing the shrinking Tory caucus.
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That said, the political arithmetic for the Tories is gruesome. Four lost caucus members in five months, and a group of Conservative MPs more reckless than a herd of zebras with lions on the prowl.
Here is Poilievre’s unpardonable political sin.
He has flunked the most basic test for any leader: advancing his party’s prospects in such a way as to portray it as a government-in-waiting. Anyone in the CPC who still thinks that it is a government-in-waiting will be waiting a long, long time under the status quo.
Admittedly, part of the reason that the CPC has set up permanent residence in the political wilderness has to do with the current prime minister.
Canadians like and trust Carney, as his extended honeymoon with voters bears out. He is seen as competent rather than flashy; modest, not Trumpian’ and very stingy when it comes to making unforced errors. You won’t soon see this politician putting the wrong end of the telephone to his ear.
And it’s not just Canadians who have duly noted Carney’s credentials and competence.
The PM has made a strong impression on the international scene, coming across as an accomplished and respected player. Years of experience at the highest levels of the private sector have only reinforced that reputation. Appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast is no substitute for running central banks in two different countries.
The extent of Poilievre’s failed leadership appears to be dawning on the Conservative Party, or at least those who hold seats in the House.
Recent reports claim that as many as 40 Conservative MPs fear that thanks to Poilievre, they will be getting a career path change after the next election. Successful leaders have coattails. Poilievre is an anchor around his own party’s political neck.
Under normal circumstances, the mood in opposition caucus should be one of energy and enthusiasm, pressing to win the government.
Instead, if the reports are accurate, the CPC is more like prisoners on death row awaiting their demise. One story gave an anonymous quote that pretty much sums up where the CPC may be at: “Pierre’s got to go.”
As accurate as that conclusion may be, the CPC has a gigantic problem of its own making.
At the recent leadership review in Calgary, delegates gave a ringing endorsement of the man whom only 22 per cent of Canadians prefer as PM according to a Nanos Research poll. When you lionize a loser unconditionally, how, on the long term, do you avoid losing?
The short answer is that you don’t.
If the CPC sticks with Poilievre, it faces continuing irrelevance. And if the Liberals do well in the upcoming byelections, if they secure a majority, that irrelevance could easily stretch into years.
A lot will depend on Carney. There is no guarantee that he will want to extend his political career beyond the current term. If he should leave, it could change the political equation in Canada, depending on who replaces him. But if he stays, the CPC faces a near insurmountable task. How to win with Poilievre? Even Conservatives are skeptical. Commenting on Gladu’s defection to the Liberals, former Stephen Harper aide Dimitri Soudas claimed it “weakened” Poilievre.
In the end, it is not the party but the leader who will determine the outcome of the current political dilemma for the CPC. Poilievre is at a personal crossroads. It is a hard struggle to achieve political power, and after having done that, even harder to give it up.
And making things more difficult for the CPC and Poilievre is the fact that he represents the last gasp of the Harper era, as the person the former PM himself tagged to lead the party. Is the party ready to face the fact that populism has had its day, and the time has come for a new iteration of conservatism?
Harper Conservatism is passé. And that means that Pierre Poilievre is too.
The bottom line? The best thing that this lifelong politician could do, both for his party and his country, is to resign. He has had a long career financed by the Canadian public. He has always had a keen idea of his self-interest.
Now it’s time for him to think of his country and his party.
Beyond that, it is time for the CPC to come up with a new vision.
Michael Harris is an award-winning author and journalist.
The Hill Times