Germany’s military power is on the rise. This time it must be firmly embedded in Europe |
As we mark the 81st anniversary of the end of the second world war in Europe this Friday, 8 May, it’s clear that Germany will again soon be the leading European military power.
Already next year its defence spending will be as much as that of France and Britain combined – and it is projected to be significantly larger by 2030. The German government’s declared goal is to have the strongest conventional army in Europe. True, France and Britain have nuclear weapons, but that means less money to spend on the rest of defence. So the question is not, will this happen? Barring unforeseen developments, it will. The question, particularly on this solemn anniversary, is, how can we ensure that this time the growth of German military power is a positive development for all of Europe?
There are two reasons Germany has made such a radical departure from the (increasingly mistaken) stance it took all the way from the hopeful 1990s to Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The first is precisely that Russian aggression. In Berlin, there’s a growing consensus that Putin won’t stop at Ukraine. The second is that the US president, Donald Trump, has now put in question the entire American commitment to the defence of Europe, as manifested through Nato since 1949. The recently announced withdrawal of 5,000 (and possibly more) US troops from Germany is just one more sign of that. The announcement rather than the move itself was triggered by Trump’s personal pique at the German chancellor Friedrich Merz’s criticism of his disastrous war against Iran.
The obvious challenge this leaves for Europe is whether we can deter an aggressive, nuclear-armed Russia on our own. (The “we” here must include Ukraine, which has the largest, most battle-hardened army in Europe.) The less obvious but equally important challenge is how to avoid........