The US stepped back from the precipice in Iran. But what happens next? |
Donald Trump styles himself as a peerless tough guy who never backs down. But he doesn’t always make good on his threats. Consider his demand that Denmark hand over Greenland, or his threats to hike tariffs on trade partners. He has even found ways to extend his deadlines for Tehran to reopen the strait of Hormuz, claiming, without evidence, that Iran was “begging” for a deal.
On Monday, Trump outdid himself. He gave Tehran until Tuesday at 8pm ET to reopen the strait – or “a whole civilization will die tonight”. The president’s public threat to commit genocide sent shockwaves through the United States. Some Democratic leaders concluded that “Trump has lost his mind”. More than 70 Democratic members of Congress called for his removal from office. Some politicians and media personalities sympathetic to Maga did the same or roundly rebuked him. Some commentators reminded soldiers that they were required to disobey flagrantly illegal orders. Never in American presidential politics has a spectacle matched this one.
Iranians, even opponents of the government, were shocked. Thousands defiantly formed human chains around bridges and power stations Trump might strike. One military commander called Trump “delusional”, adding that Iran would strike back even harder. The country’s senior leadership announced the end of all direct diplomatic communications with the United States. Tehran’s public stance was that it would never bend the knee.
That left Trump two choices, both of them bad.
One was to raze Iran. But that would have made the political firestorm at home worse – even some Republican legislators might have demanded his ouster – and triggered an avalanche of international denunciations, including from allies. Iran’s attacks on Persian Gulf oil and gas infrastructure would have caused the price of energy and various other commodities (fertilizers, aluminum, helium and petrochemicals) to surge further, possibly laying the groundwork........