There are various ways to map the spectrum of public opinion and model voter journeys from one pole to another, but none applies to Sheila. White-haired and frail, she takes a few minutes to come to the door of her small redbrick terrace house on an estate in Eastbourne’s Hampden Park suburb. She looks tired and explains that medication for a serious illness makes her sleepy. But a glint of something like mischief flickers in her eyes when she’s asked who has her support at the coming election.
It’s a close call. Reform or Liberal Democrat. Sheila likes what Nigel Farage has to say and has backed Ukip before (never the Tories). Pressed to choose, she declares her decision by pointing emphatically at the young man standing on her doorstep holding a stack of orange-fringed flyers. Josh Babarinde’s reputation has preceded him.
Sheila’s granddaughter told her about the Lib Dem candidate’s work campaigning to protect imperilled services at Eastbourne hospital. He grew up on the estate and is recognised at every door as a hardworking, troubleshooting local boy. Babarinde recently turned 31, which is boyish for a Sussex seaside resort that attracts retirees. No one doubts he will unseat Caroline Ansell, the incumbent Tory. He would also break new ground as a mixed-heritage Lib Dem MP – his father is Nigerian – representing a very white town.
Race might be an issue for some Reform sympathisers, but it isn’t an obstacle for Sheila. Nor is it a deal breaker for Will, whom I met earlier in the day when sampling opinion in the town centre. He is 58 and a former Conservative voter who now dismisses the party without hesitation. “They’ve had it,” he says. Will would reluctantly take Rishi Sunak over Keir........