The political poles are moving – and that’s not a typo. The stark class divides of 20th century politics are flipping, with once conservative parties of capital respawning as champions of the common folk while progressives are condemned as privileged elites.

Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, a close result will confirm this inflection. Trump is the cartoon version of this shift, but across the west the right is successfully targeting those the system fails with economic and cultural grievance.

Could it work here? Peter Dutton is not about to die wondering. With little prospect of winning back the swathe of inner-city seats seized by the teal independents in 2022, Dutton’s only plausible route to power is via the outer suburbs and regions where cost-of-living pressure is biting.

As this week’s Guardian Essential Report shows, he has a lot to work with: a majority of voters now say they are either struggling to pay the bills or in serious financial difficulty.

These are not good numbers for an incumbent government presiding over difficult economic times. If the material conditions of a majority of an electorate are negative, “more of the same” becomes a hard sell.

A few things stand out. The economy is working significantly better for men than women, while those in the mid-stage of their lives with mortgages and school-age children are more likely to be feeling financial heat.

But the pressures of tough economic times do not discriminate by age or cultural identity and........

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