All told, Democrats already seem as though they’re headed for a great midterm election. Voters already troubled by the state of the economy now have the impacts of Donald Trump’s teeter-tottering war in Iran to contend with, and polls tell us they aren’t happy ⁠– per poll averages from the analyst Nate Silver, nearly 55% of Americans oppose the war in Iran, 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and 57% of Americans disapprove of Trump overall. As it stands, Democrats have a six-point advantage in generic congressional ballot polling over Republicans.

And Republican hopes that a mid-decade redistricting rush would save their tight majority in the House have been frustrated. The partisan gerrymandering war of the last several months peaked with the victory of a ballot measure in Virginia that allows the state’s Democratic legislature to draw maps that would eliminate three Republican seats and a riposte by Florida Republicans who approved their own map that could allow Republicans to gain as many as four seats in that state – mere hours after the Supreme Court struck down provisions in the Voting Rights Act banning racial gerrymandering.

While the redistricting battles will drag on, electoral history and Trump’s standing give Democrats plenty of reason to presume it will take the House in November ⁠– on average in elections since the end of World War II, the president’s party tends to lose well over 20 House seats in midterm elections and Republicans currently hold the chamber by just three. And given polling for competitive races in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and elsewhere, even the Senate may now be in Democrats’ reach.

Across the country, Democrats now hold a small advantage on the basis of House maps alone that could be eliminated if Florida Republicans rework that state’s map and if the US supreme court strikes down provisions in the Voting Rights Act banning racial gerrymandering in the coming weeks. But even if so, electoral history and........

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