It is one of the oddities of this weirdest of election campaigns that the issue that helped give the Conservatives an 80-seat majority in 2019 has barely been mentioned. As far as the main parties are concerned, Brexit is a done deal. The decision has been made. Time to move on.
To be sure, much has happened since 2019, most notably a global pandemic, a cost of living crisis and the brief – yet drama-packed – premiership of Liz Truss. Making ends meet features more prominently in voters’ lists of concerns than whether the UK should rejoin the single market.
Even so, the fact that the UK left the EU since the last election matters. It matters because Brussels can no longer be blamed for the UK’s problems or the failure of UK politicians to deal with them. The EU can’t, for example, be fingered for record net migration numbers in 2022. Those are entirely due to decisions taken at Westminster. The likely scale of the Conservative defeat on 4 July will be the result of voters holding the government fully to account for rising prices, falling living standards and a failure to deliver on levelling up. There is no hiding place, and that’s good. Many of those who voted leave in 2016 because they felt ignored and marginalised still feel ignored and marginalised. They gave the Tories a chance and they blew........