North American free trade is dead. The sooner Canada accepts that, the better |
Even if USMCA survives in some form, Canada should prepare for a very different trade relationship with the U.S.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Lawrence Herman is an international lawyer with Herman & Associates and a senior fellow of the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.
The era of North American free trade is over.
That point was hammered home by the report on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement sent to Congress last week by the U.S. Trade Representative, a prelude to the formal review of the deal set to start in July, but which could get underway earlier.
While it can be read several ways, the report, and USTR Jamieson Greer’s oral comments, reveal that even if the USMCA continues to tick over during the 2026 review, there will be tough demands by the Trump team for concessions from Canada and Mexico, backstopped by the threat of U.S. withdrawal from the agreement on six months notice.
In the background is the fact that President Donald Trump has shown hostility to the very concept of North American free trade from the outset, saying a few weeks ago that the U.S. will “either let [the trade agreement] expire … or work out another deal with Mexico and Canada.” A few days later, Mr. Greer said the administration is considering........