Parti Quebecois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon walks to a news conference on Oct. 28, 2024 at the legislature in Quebec City.Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press

There is something Dickensian about the diverging political fates of Doug Ford and François Legault. In this tale of two Premiers first elected in 2018, one leader seems to possess a Teflon-like ability to rebound from any setback or scandal, while the other seems to have become an accident-prone serial scorer of own-goals.

Ontario’s Premier, buoyed by his party’s gravity-defying poll numbers, appears poised to call an early election. His Quebec counterpart, whose popularity has been sinking like a stone, has been holding off calling a by-election that his party seems sure to lose.

A Léger poll released this week found support for Mr. Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec falling to an eight-year low of 21 per cent among decided voters, as the sovereigntist Parti Québécois continues its recent roll. At 35 per cent, PQ support is at its highest level since it won a minority government in 2012.

More important, the PQ has the backing of 44 per cent of francophone voters, giving it a gaping 20-percentage-point lead over the CAQ among the voters who........

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