This view shows a bulk carrier and crude oil tanker anchored on Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela on January 7, 2026.MARYORIN MENDEZ/AFP/Getty Images

John Rapley is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He is an author and academic whose books include Why Empires Fall and Twilight of the Money Gods.

The U.S. raid on Venezuela has raised the threat level in Canada. The immediate concern has been whether it would dent Canadian oil exports, though the bigger worry is if the apparent success of the military operation in Venezuela makes this country next. Donald Trump has never backed away from his suggestion that Canada should become the 51st state, and the White House has laid hungry eyes on our mineral resources.

The short answer to the first question is no, the oil patch won’t take a hit any time soon. However, on the second point, concern is more warranted. One thing we can probably assume is that, in the coming year, Mr. Trump will ramp up his foreign misadventures. The U.S. presidency is quite unrestrained when it comes using its powers abroad, and the temptation often proves irresistible for White House occupants when things are going badly,........

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