Can Pierre Poilievre’s conservatism win in our brave new world? |
Whether or not Pierre Poilievre ever becomes Prime Minister, or even remains as Leader of his party, he has left an enduring impact on Canadian conservatism.The Globe and Mail
Ben Woodfinden is a senior adviser at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips and the former director of communications for Pierre Poilievre.
What kind of conservative is Pierre Poilievre, exactly? It’s a question lots of Canadians were asking a little over a year ago, when the Conservative Party Leader looked almost certain to become Canada’s 24th Prime Minister. Commentators analyzed his every move; political scientists theorized about his coalition; critics warned about his populist brand of conservatism.
Then things changed, upended by a U.S. President who seems intent on blowing up not just Canadian politics, but the entire world order. And after a historic Liberal comeback, many of those same people have now written Mr. Poilievre off as a man whose moment has passed. A little less than a year after what was predicted to be a coronation, he now faces a party leadership review.
What’s more, it’s not clear that the coalition Mr. Poilievre built – one that is younger, more diverse, and more working-class – will be enough to win in Donald Trump’s world. It’s a group that is looking for change, but the President has scrambled the rules, causing many voters to seek stability and the preservation of the status quo, rather than its disruption.
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Whether Mr. Poilievre’s version of conservatism can succeed in the age of Trump is an open question, but we must also understand what “Poilievre conservatism” really is. Because whether or not Mr. Poilievre ever becomes Prime Minister, or even remains as Leader, he has already left an enduring impact on Canadian conservatism.
Poilievre conservatism is both a response to global and coalitional shifts, and a distinct style that draws on older variants while reflecting his long-standing ideological world view about the importance of freedom and common sense. Understanding what he built, and whether it has any room for growth without radically changing, matters for the future of the conservative movement in Canada.
Poilievre conservatism cannot be understood independent of the broader realignments that have been changing politics. Across many advanced democracies in recent years, conservative parties have been transforming into vehicles for working-class voters who have felt left behind by the political establishments and neo-liberal consensus that governed the world for decades.
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Brexit only happened because working-class voters in traditional Labour strongholds voted Leave and then drifted over to the Conservatives under Boris Johnson in 2019; Mr. Trump won the Rust Belt by speaking to Americans who felt forgotten by Washington. This pattern has repeated itself across Western democracies: conservative parties are making themselves a home for voters who believe the system no longer works for them.
But as part of this realignment, many conservatives have also thought that capturing........