Gulf Restraint And Trump’s Dilemma: Why Diplomacy Is Iran’s Only Way Forward |
Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have announced that they will not allow their territories, airspaces, or waters to be used to launch attacks against Iran. These pronouncements come at a time when there is growing uncertainty surrounding the course of action the Trump administration might take against Iran. While US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about the Iran-bound armada, he has not yet shunned diplomacy.
This position is in stark contrast to the one taken in early January, when Trump vowed to invade Iran to help protesters remove the Islamic Republic. This change could be attributed to several factors.
First, the regime is not as feeble as it is assumed to be. The all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is regarded as the strongest pillar of the regime, remains cohesive and loyal. Moreover, it was able to control the recent uprising. This is evidenced by the fact that the protests have dissipated, just like the previous ones did. From a US standpoint, the resilience of the regime is instructive in more ways than one.
Foremost, it shows that Iran is no Venezuela and can withstand a short war. Concomitantly, there is no formidable opposition that can galvanise Iranians against the regime while presenting itself as a........