The New Gulf Order |
What is unfolding across the Gulf is not just another episode of regional instability; it is a structural shock that is forcing governments, investors, and citizens to rethink long-held assumptions about security, prosperity, and alliances. The idea that parts of the Gulf could remain insulated from the conflicts of the wider Middle East is now being tested in real time—and found wanting.
First, Gulf states should begin to recognise that the presence of foreign military bases on their soil is not exactly what they bargained for. For decades, these bases were seen as a deterrent, a guarantee that external powers would step in if the region’s security was threatened. Today, however, the reality looks very different. Drone and missile attacks are occurring almost daily, and these bases are no longer just symbols of protection; they are also targets.
This shift in perception matters. Citizens in Gulf states are increasingly likely to view the continued presence of foreign forces not as a safeguard but as a risk factor. While governments may be slow to react publicly, the pressure to reassess these arrangements will grow, and something will eventually have to give.
Second, and perhaps more worrying from a strategic standpoint, is the perception that the US is not coming to the defence of its traditional allies, at least not in the way that many had expected. Whether this perception is entirely accurate is less important than the fact that it exists and is gaining traction. For many in the region, it now appears that they are being left to fend for themselves.
This has profound implications. Security doctrines that were built around external guarantees will need to be revisited. In this context, Saudi Arabia’s mutual defence relationship with Pakistan may acquire renewed importance, offering an alternative or supplementary framework for cooperation in an increasingly........