Last week the Food Security Minister announced that Pakistan would import wheat. The decision was presented as market stabilisation. It is better understood as an invoice. This is the accumulated bill for three harvests of policy failure, presented all at once. In April, farmers across Punjab sold wheat at Rs 2,900-3,200 per 40 kilograms against the state's own benchmark of Rs 3,500. By late July the national average had climbed above Rs 4,600. The farmer received less than the state's declared support price. The state paid more than the farmer's asking price, but to foreigners, not to him.

The harvest itself was not a failure. Production is estimated at 29.31 million tonnes. Pakistan consumes roughly 31.9 million tonnes and adds five million mouths each year. The structural deficit is real. But the grain was grown, cut and bagged. What failed was the system's ability to buy it when it was available and cheap in rupees.

Follow the money. Black Sea wheat is trading at roughly 240-270 dollars per tonne FOB. Add freight, insurance, stevedoring, bagging and inland transport and the landed cost in Pakistan reaches Rs 3,400-3,800 per 40 kilograms. At the upper end, this is higher than the Rs 3,500 benchmark declared fiscally unaffordable when the seller was a Pakistani farmer.

If the government imports one million tonnes at these prices, the bill approaches 280 million dollars. If the projected........

© The Friday Times