Governments often imagine that reform begins when a policy is announced.

In commodity markets, reform begins much later: when banks decide whether to lend, when buyers decide whether the rules will hold, when warehouse operators decide whether stored grain is safe from arbitrary interference, and when private actors decide whether commitments will be honoured.

Punjab's wheat transition is now confronting that reality.

The debate over wheat reform has largely focused on policy intent. Should the state continue open-ended procurement? Should the government remain a buyer of last resort, or exit procurement altogether? But the events of the 2026 harvest suggest Punjab's deeper problem lies elsewhere. The transition is faltering not because the policy is controversial, but because the institutional discipline required to execute it has not yet been built.

Reform does not fail only when policy is wrong. It also fails when implementation becomes discretionary, when financing arrives late, when private actors are asked to assume risks they cannot control, and when the rules they must plan around prove unstable in practice.

The credibility problem is now central.

Private participation in commodity markets depends on enforceable commitments. When those weaken, participation does not disappear. It becomes cautious, delayed and more expensive.

The province's 2026 model was ambitious on paper. The government aimed to procure around three million tonnes through private companies, offering bank-loan facilitation, 70 per cent markup support, free Food Department storage and technical assistance. Yet newspapers reported that nine of the eleven firms failed amid financing and pricing disputes, effectively stalling the procurement drive.

The press reported that Punjab's negotiations with commercial banks were unsuccessful, after which the province shifted towards aggregators financed from its own resources. Banks were uncomfortable because the funds and pledged stock would be theirs, while authority over release timing, quantity and price would remain with food officials.

Punjab's food sector circular debt, which began in 2002 at Rs36.9 billion, had grown to Rs675 billion by the time it was finally cleared in August 2025, a debt costing the province Rs250 million a day in interest alone

Punjab's food sector circular debt, which began in 2002 at Rs36.9 billion, had grown to Rs675 billion by the time it was finally cleared in August 2025, a debt costing the province Rs250 million a day in interest alone

In central Punjab this April, one........

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