The UAE today faces perhaps the most dangerous strategic dilemma in its modern history. Not because Iran has suddenly become hostile. Tehran has always possessed the capacity to threaten Gulf security.

Not because Israel has suddenly become expansionist. Its regional ambitions have been visible for a long time before October 7. And certainly not because India suddenly emerged as an unreliable partner. New Delhi has always pursued transactional interests while pretending to be everybody’s strategic friend simultaneously.

The real problem is that Abu Dhabi increasingly appears to be drifting away from the very Gulf geography where its roots, prosperity and long-term security ultimately lie. The Iran-US-Israel war exposes this reality brutally. Iran attacks the UAE repeatedly during the conflict, far more aggressively than many expected. Emirati infrastructure and strategic assets come under pressure. Regional trade routes face disruption. The Gulf’s fragile security architecture suddenly appears vulnerable.

And what is the Emirati response? More dependence on Israel. Greater enthusiasm for the Abraham Accords. Deeper security engagement with India. More distance from the natural GCC strategic consensus led by Saudi Arabia. It is difficult to imagine a more dangerous lesson being drawn from this war.

MBZ essentially looks at October 7 and draws the opposite conclusion from much of the Arab world. While others see Israeli overreach, humanitarian catastrophe and the dangers of permanent escalation, Abu Dhabi increasingly appears convinced that unresolved deterrence threats must be crushed decisively, even at the cost of wider regional confrontation. That logic gradually aligns Emirati and Israeli strategic thinking in unprecedented ways.

The problem, however, is geography. There is ultimately no escape from geography in the Gulf. Israel is not the UAE’s neighbour. India is not the UAE’s neighbour. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the rest of the GCC are. The Emirates may deepen relations with extra-regional powers, but its long-term stability will still depend upon a functional Gulf order rather than permanent confrontation inside it.

Which is why the May 15 UAE statement becomes important despite everything else unfolding simultaneously. Abu Dhabi publicly reaffirms “close........

© The Friday Times