Pakistan has finally officially acknowledged striking targets in Afghanistan’s Khost and Paktia provinces. Earlier on Monday, Zabihullah Mujahid, spokesperson for Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan (TTA) — the self-styled Afghan Interim Government — had put out a statement, “warning that strikes such as these could lead to consequences which are beyond Pakistan's control.”
Pakistan’s reaction followed Saturday’s terrorist attack in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan district. In response to Pakistan’s aerial strikes, the TTA defence ministry claimed that it had carried out multiple attacks on Pakistani army and FC posts along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Pakistan responded. This was corroborated by sources on the ground.
What next?
Official sources say that for now this is enough. That thinking is wrong at various levels. Consider.
Afghanistan is not a state in any modern sense of a state, especially not with the Taliban at the helm. To put it in perspective, Afghanistan is not India or Iran, both far more powerful states compared to Afghanistan but vulnerable precisely because a conflict would make them (as it would any state) lose much in economic, infrastructural and military terms.
Other factors being constant, deterrence, therefore, works when states are configured in similar ways. It seeks to maintain the status quo between them. In other words, deterrence works when a state can prevent another state from undertaking an undesired action by influencing a state’s perception of the costs, benefits, and risks of an action — i.e., when State X can persuade State Y that the cost (essentially, risk) of a particular action will most likely outweigh the benefits. In that sense deterrence is the absence of activity.
Pakistan, Iran Must Mutually Overcome Minor Irritants Through Dialogue, Diplomacy: NSC MeetingOther factors being constant, deterrence, therefore, works when states are configured in similar ways. It seeks to maintain the status quo between them.
The process involves the signalling of resolve backed by demonstrable capability; so communication is integral to deterrence. A good example is Pakistan’s recent retaliatory action inside Iran after Iran chose to engage targets on Pakistani territory. By demonstrating its capability and the resolve that it would respond to any such aggression, Pakistan signalled to Iran and, implicitly, also to India. Equally, by indicating that it did not want any escalation, it gave an offramp to Tehran. A stick must, therefore, have a carrot with it. That’s the combination of negative and positive inducements.
Whether it is deterrence by denial (convincing an........