Fractured Atlantic Alliance? |
The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28 tends to expose the myth of the transatlantic alliance. When major NATO countries refused to support the U.S. attack on Iraq in March 2003, a similar situation emerged; now, Europe has expressed its unwillingness to side with America in its war with Iran. This indicates a fractured Atlantic alliance. Despite the request of U.S. President Donald Trump for NATO members to send their naval ships to open the Strait of Hormuz, Europe is unwilling to support America.
Following the Munich Security Conference (MSC) held in February 2026, the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28 reflects the worsening security situation in the Persian Gulf and West Asia. The U.S.-Israeli attack and the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with top military leadership, will be a test case of Western strategic consensus since the U.S.-Britain attack on Iraq in March 2003. To what extent European powers will support the U.S. and Israel against Iran is yet to be seen.
Unlike 2025, when U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance, in his address, shattered strategic consensus among Western countries by undermining NATO and criticising Europe over its immigration and free speech issues, in 2026, Marco Rubio, the American Foreign Secretary, while delivering his keynote address at the MSC, stated that “the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own. Ultimately, our destiny is, and will always be, intertwined with yours.” The German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul welcomed Rubio’s forward-looking approach for strengthening the transatlantic alliance.
The Munich Security Conference, held every year, is a major event in which participants engage in brainstorming sessions on global security-related issues. Certainly, the United States holds a key position in the Atlantic alliance, and its withdrawal will impact Europe’s security concerns. The war in Ukraine is a major challenge, as pointed out by Volodymyr Zelensky in his address at the MSC, noting that before the fourth anniversary of the Russian attack, thousands of people had been killed, leading to the displacement of millions in eastern Ukraine.
Strategic consensus in the Atlantic alliance is imperative for stable Euro-U.S. relations. Unfortunately, during the first and second terms of U.S. President Donald Trump, Europe expressed its dismay over the manner in which Washington undermined the role of NATO and asserted its claim over Greenland, a part of Denmark.
Yet, damage-control measures taken by the U.S. and Europe to re-establish strategic consensus gained impetus at the MSC. At least, there is a realisation in Washington that it cannot afford to detach itself from Europe. However, the Trump administration is unable to fully support Ukraine because, according to Zelensky, it is exerting pressure on Kyiv to reach an agreement with Moscow by accepting Russian territorial gains in eastern Ukraine. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has exposed NATO in the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference.
Trump’s relegation of American commitment to the Atlantic alliance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran tends to provide an opportunity for major European powers like Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy to fill the vacuum by offering alternative leadership in Europe
Trump’s relegation of American commitment to the Atlantic alliance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran tends to provide an opportunity for major European powers like Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy to fill the vacuum by offering alternative leadership in Europe
According to a report titled “Munich Security Conference 2026: The West against Itself,” published in Daily Sabah on February 14, “The Munich Security Conference has long functioned as a central platform for international security debates, particularly as a forum through which threat perceptions within the transatlantic alliance are articulated from a European perspective. In this sense, it has served as a global compass. The significance of both the annual conference and its pre-conference report, which outlines the year’s central theme, has historically derived from this role.” Yet the MSC has not downplayed the Euro-U.S. schism in its report and considers it a major challenge for stability in the Atlantic alliance.
According to the same source: “This year’s report, however, is markedly different. Published under the theme ‘Under Destruction’, it emphasises what Europe now faces and also what it describes as fragmentation within the West. Accordingly, at least this year, the conference has shifted from being a platform focused primarily on external threats to one centred on epistemic, ideological and strategic fragmentation within the West itself. Particularly noteworthy is the report’s characterisation of this internal division as a crisis and, indeed, as one of the most significant risks confronting Europe.”
Trump’s relegation of American commitment to the Atlantic alliance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran tends to provide an opportunity for major European powers like Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy to fill the vacuum by offering alternative leadership in Europe. Restoration of strategic consensus between the U.S. and Europe is needed, but it will not be possible because of Trump’s policy of unilateralism, particularly his long-standing rhetoric about bringing Greenland under American control and the coordinated U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, leading to the outbreak of armed conflict in the Persian Gulf.
One can explore three possibilities for restoring U.S.-Europe strategic consensus on a permanent basis. First, in his address at the MSC, the U.S. Secretary of State, while assuring American support to Europe, emphasised the cultural and civilisational bonds between America and Europe. He made it clear that the U.S. may be located in the Western Hemisphere, but it has centuries of linguistic, cultural, and civilisational ties with Europe.
When Europe refused to support the U.S. in its war with Iran, it argued that Washington did not take it into confidence before attacking Iran, so why should it respond positively to opening the Strait of Hormuz?
When Europe refused to support the U.S. in its war with Iran, it argued that Washington did not take it into confidence before attacking Iran, so why should it respond positively to opening the Strait of Hormuz?
This suggests that the Trump administration has realised that, despite issues pertaining to NATO, Ukraine, and immigration, it considers its ties with Europe paramount. By supporting the culture of populism spearheaded by right-wing, anti-immigration political parties, Trump seeks to ensure that the bond between America and Europe is deepened. For that matter, the focus of the Trump administration is to curb immigration from the Third World while promoting migration from Europe.
By tacitly supporting right-wing and conservative forces in Europe, particularly in Germany, France, the U.K., and Italy, Donald Trump is hopeful that if they come to power in these countries, it will strengthen his anti-immigration policy. In that case, he believes that the strategic alliance between the U.S. and Europe will be based on Christian, white, and civilisational culture rather than multilateralism. Trump may not succeed in this objective, but what Marco Rubio articulated about cultural and civilisational bonds between America and Europe carries weight.
Second, if Europe wants to assert its position while maintaining Western unity, it will have to play a leadership role instead of solely depending on the United States. The Munich Security Conference reflected that, despite the conciliatory tone of the U.S., the two sides remain far apart in restoring strategic consensus.
Unless the United States puts pressure on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and compels Moscow to pay compensation to Kyiv as war damages, one cannot expect Europe and America to strengthen the Atlantic alliance permanently. However, events after the MSC reflect a growing wedge and schism in the transatlantic alliance because of President Trump’s behaviour vis-à-vis European allies. Moreover, the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has diminished hopes of repairing the U.S.-NATO schism.
The Trump administration needs to bear in mind that NATO was established and strengthened as a result of American support, and the weakening of U.S. commitment to Europe will have adverse ramifications. Marco Rubio’s visit to Hungary and Slovakia after attending the MSC indicates Trump’s effort to reinforce support for right-wing governments aligned with his anti-immigration policies. Henceforth, it is Europe’s moment of truth to cope with the surge of populism supported by the Trump administration, which poses a threat to liberal democracy.
Third, the MSC failed to address key issues such as Greenland and Ukraine because the United States has not withdrawn from its policy of seeking control over the Danish territory or compelling Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Ironically, unlike the Biden administration, which fully supported Ukraine in its war with Russia, President Trump is calling upon Kyiv to compromise by accepting Russia’s occupation of large parts of Ukraine. Moreover, the MSC also failed to resolve issues between the U.S. and NATO, particularly Trump’s refusal to bear the financial burden of the alliance. When Europe refused to support the U.S. in its war with Iran, it argued that Washington did not take it into confidence before attacking Iran, so why should it respond positively to opening the Strait of Hormuz?
It remains to be seen how the U.S.-Iran war will affect NATO, particularly when the world is facing serious energy and food crises. If the Republican Party loses the November 2026 mid-term elections, it will also impact Trump’s ambitions regarding Greenland and the war in Ukraine. The post-Trump era in America will likely not support the culture of populism in Europe or unilateralism. The lack of strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Europe on attacking Iran for regime change suggests that President Trump’s policy of unilateralism is detrimental to the transatlantic alliance.