The fragile U.S.–Iran negotiations, following the Islamabad-brokered ceasefire and now unfolding across multiple regional capitals, have highlighted a defining shift in contemporary geopolitics. While earlier engagement in Islamabad helped open a diplomatic channel, the current effort—extending across Tehran, Washington, Riyadh, Cairo, and Ankara—reflects a broader reality: in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar order, both the conduct of war and the process of ending it have become decentralised and complex.

As the April 22 deadline approaches, diplomatic attention has shifted from the pursuit of “total victory” to the more immediate objective of preventing a wider regional conflict. The confrontation between Washington and Tehran illustrates the limits of coercive pressure in such an environment. Political scientist Dominic Tierney has described this dynamic as the search for the “right way to lose”—the effort by states to disengage from costly conflicts without suffering an outright or humiliating defeat.

For the United States, the policy of “maximum pressure” appears to have reached its limits. While recent military operations reportedly inflicted significant damage on Iran’s industrial infrastructure, they did not produce the expected political outcome. Instead, the........

© The Friday Times