There were hasty celebrations over the Islamabad MoU signed on 17 June 2026. It indeed put Islamabad in a prominent spot on the stage of world diplomacy for a while, before the first strike came within 48 hours. Now again, there are discussions on peace agreement between the US and Iran. I have my reasons to dismiss any possibility of a lasting peace – at least for the foreseeable future. Before presenting my reasons in support of my argument, first consider another thing.

This war is mutating: in June 2025, it was called the Iran-Israel war, then it mutated into the Israel/US-Iran war. In round two, which commenced on 28 February 2026, it was still the Israel/US-Iran war, which mutated into the US-Iran war after the 17 June MoU – Israel became a distant bystander and Gulf nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, began to be dragged into it. It then halted short of becoming an Iran-Saudi war after Saudi jets struck Yemen's Sanaa airport on 13 July 2026 to block an "unauthorised" inbound flight from Iran.

It activated the Houthis after a pause of over four years. A commentator from Arab media remarked that the Saudis pushed for strikes on Iran when the Strait of Hormuz remained closed – it spiked oil prices, which benefited the kingdom with the ability to export via the Red Sea. They rushed for the ceasefire after the Red Sea opening at Bab-el-Mandeb came under threat from the Houthis. Conspicuously, Pakistan remained distant from Saudi Arabia's Yemen campaign – with a dormant Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in the background.

For the US, things are more complicated. And this is where my scepticism about the........

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