Supply chains across the globe traditionally operate on the trinity of speed, reliability, and cost. However, since the US led tariff war, this equilibrium has been broken, and supply chains are now guided by macroscale geopolitical conditions. Business decisions have now become contingent on political conditions, rather than a sound commercial logic. Companies are being forced to shift away from an “efficiency-first” and “just-in-time” model to “just-in-case” models. This shift represents a transition to geoeconomic fragmentation. In this new landscape, trade policy functions as a primary lever of economic warfare.

Tariffs today shape investment decisions and not just import pricing, harping upon relative costs of production, creating market certainty and changing profitability incentives for businesses. According to a recent study, 57% of US companies have postponed or cancelled major new capital infusions due to tariffs.

With a turmoil in the investment space manoeuvred by politics and tariffs, there is a growing need for India to capitalise on this opportunity of trade misalignment and undertake policies aligned with its vision of becoming a global trading powerhouse by 2030. With the Union Budget 2026, India should focus on making itself a highly competitive trade market with an increased priority on reliance and........

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