The question posed in the title of this essay can only be answered speculatively. In doing so I will speculate about the world Pakistan will find at the beginning of 2026. The change in the global order Pakistan will face is the result of natural events as well as changes that are the result of what policymakers working from the world's major capitals have done in the year that is now a part of history. As I have written before, three of Pakistan's four immediate neighbours have adopted religion as the main force of governance. Afghanistan, China, India and Iran are the four neighbours. Of these, only China has remained secular.

Those who manage Pakistan's affairs must also take into account the possibility of an era of regional and global wars. By invading Venezuela and arresting Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Donald Trump has ignited a debate among historians about the origin of wars. The most quoted work on the subject of wars is the book by Carl von Clausewitz published in 1833. The book carried the simple title of On Wars. It is a description of the origin of armed conflict, and the writings of Clausewitz are being recalled by scholars who have studied wars and are studying them now.

Wars, according to a Princeton University historian, "are a continuation of policy by other means." Historians go back to the unravelling of the world order that had kept peace in the 19th century. The order ended with two catastrophic wars — the first and second world wars — fought between 1914 and 1918 and again between 1939 and........

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