Monroe Doctrine and methods of rationality |
"All of these (Venezuelan) actions were in gross violation of the core principles of American foreign policy, dating back more than two centuries," President Trump said in his press remarks following the US operation to arrest Nicolás Maduro. "All the way back, it dated to the Monroe Doctrine. And the Monroe Doctrine is a big deal, but we've superseded it by a lot, by a real lot. They now call it the 'Donroe Doctrine'." This remark clarifies the first half of the title. The second is borrowed from fiction. Fanfiction, to be precise.
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality is a well-known rationalist fanfiction by autodidact Eliezer Yudkowsky, published online between 2010 and 2015. It reimagines JK Rowling's universe through a protagonist raised by scientists and trained to apply logic, scientific method and cognitive discipline to the practice of magic. The reference here is intentional. It signals an attempt to examine President Trump's policies through the lens of rational state behaviour rather than rhetorical style.
This distinction matters. Media and pundit commentary often treats President Trump's peculiar communication style, which his supporters frequently regard as direct and refreshing, as evidence of policy incoherence. That assumption collapses tone into substance. What is at issue here is not personal manner but state rationality, specifically how a state assesses risk, updates beliefs and signals intent under conditions of uncertainty.
Bayesian reasoning offers a useful frame. At its core, it is a method of decision-making in which one begins with a prior judgement and revises it as new information becomes available, adjusting probabilities rather than discarding assumptions wholesale. For this piece, that approach allows policy to be read as adaptive rather than impulsive.........