India's recent manipulation of Chenab River flows has once again brought the fragile water relationship between Pakistan and India into sharp focus. What was once hailed as one of the most successful examples of conflict-resilient diplomacy in the developing world is now being undermined by unilateral actions that threaten Pakistan's survival. The abrupt release of 58,300 cusecs of water into the Chenab, followed by expectations that India will refill its dams and reduce flows to near zero, is not just a technical matter of dam management, but a deliberate political act that destabilises Pakistan's irrigation system, disrupts agriculture and raises fears that water is being used as a coercive weapon in South Asia's already volatile environment.

Chenab River is central to Pakistan's agricultural economy, particularly in Punjab, where wheat cultivation depends on predictable irrigation flows. Reports from the Provincial Disaster Management Authority show how erratic the situation has become: 31,000 cusecs at Marala, 17,000 at Khanki, 11,000 at Qadirabad and 11,000 at Trimmu, with moderate rises expected. These fluctuations are not minor inconveniences; they directly affect canal operations, reservoir management, and ultimately the livelihoods of millions of farmers.

When water is released without prior notification, Pakistan's ability to plan is crippled. Farmers face crop damage, lower yields, increased input costs and rising indebtedness. In a country already struggling with food insecurity, such disruptions are devastating. The DG ISPR has gone so far as to describe these actions as "water terrorism", a phrase that captures the sense of deliberate destabilisation felt in........

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