Decoding Trump: How Australia must navigate the President's erratic behaviour |
When I was in the Defence Intelligence Organisation, we analysed foreign military leaders - their strengths, weaknesses, health status and likely successors. The CIA's Office of Leadership Analysis did much the same for political figures, even attempting to collect biological samples for health assessment.
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One assumes Australia's Office of National Intelligence maintains that analytical capability - particularly when interpreting the behaviour of a president as unconventional as Donald Trump, whose unpredictable behaviour increasingly shapes strategic outcomes and alliance dynamics.
To non-Americans, President Trump's conduct can appear increasingly erratic. A recent example was the US military attack on Iran, reported as occurring following pressure from Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu - without a clearly articulated American rationale, and reportedly against advice from the US intelligence community. The absence of a coherent strategic objective has raised concerns among allies about how such actions fit within broader US policy.
Then there was Trump's awkward reference to Japan's World War II attack on Pearl Harbour, which he brought up during the March 19 Oval Office meeting with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Trump invoked Pearl Harbour to justify not notifying allies before the US's initial strikes on Iran, prompting visible discomfort from the Japanese prime minister and audible groans from the press gallery. Such moments matter diplomatically, as symbolism and historical memory carry weight in alliance relationships.
What can be said, more cautiously, is that in 2026 many American observers see Trump's recent public behaviour as more erratic or unusual. A February 2026 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 61 percent of Americans (including 30 percent of Republicans) believe he has "become erratic with age". At the same time, that remains a political and........