China’s Afghanistan-Pakistan Mediation Efforts Cast Doubt on Its Influence in Both Countries |
China Power | Diplomacy | South Asia
China’s Afghanistan-Pakistan Mediation Efforts Cast Doubt on Its Influence in Both Countries
Beijing has proved unable to end or even shape the conflict – especially in Pakistan.
After unsuccessful efforts to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, China initiated efforts to resolve the conflict in its neighborhood, which Pakistan has declared an “open war.” The fighting started in October of last year when both Pakistan and Afghanistan conducted strikes inside each other’s territory. Even though a ceasefire was brokered, with mediation by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, the attacks from both sides eventually resumed due to unresolved underlying issues.
The return to conflict raised significant concerns for China, which is an ally, economic partner, and neighbor of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thus, Beijing actively started efforts to bring an end to the conflict, which deeply affects its interests in both countries.
After Pakistan launched its Operation Ghazab lil-Haq against the Taliban on February 27, China expressed its deep concerns and asked both sides “to remain calm, exercise restraint, properly resolve differences and disputes through dialogue and negotiation, end the fighting as soon as possible, and avoid more sufferings.”
With regards to mediation between both conflicting parties, Mao Ning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said that “China has been mediating between the two sides via its own channels, and stands ready to continue playing a constructive role for de-escalation and the improvement of relations between the two countries.” Explaining further, Mao added: “Our Ministry and embassies in Pakistan and Afghanistan are engaging relevant sides in the two countries.”
Along with clear calls for de-escalation and China’s mediation efforts, she also pointed out that Beijing asks “Pakistan and Afghanistan to ensure the safety and security of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in the two countries.” China has growing concerns about its own interests in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are faced with more uncertainties after the beginning of this conflict.
China ramped up its mediation efforts during the first and second weeks of March, when its special envoy for Afghanistan, Yu Xiaoyong, visited Islamabad and Kabul in an attempt to broker a ceasefire between the countries. According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Yue Xiaoyong visited Afghanistan and Pakistan to conduct shuttle mediation regarding the recent conflicts between the two nations” between March 7 and 14. In Afghanistan, Yue held separate meetings with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Minister of Industry and Commerce Haji Nooruddin Azizi. While in Pakistan, “he met with Pakistani Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch, and Pakistani Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadiq, among other dignitaries,” China’s Foreign Ministry said.
Overall, “he urged both parties to exercise calm and restraint, cease fire and hostilities at the earliest opportunity, and resolve their differences and disputes through dialogue.” The Chinese statement also claimed that “both the Afghan and Pakistani sides expressed their gratitude for China’s mediation efforts, reiterating their willingness to resolve the issues through political and diplomatic channels.”
Besides shuttle mediation by Yue, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi also sought to calm the situation down. Lin Jian, another Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said during his regular press conference on March 16 that “China has been mediating between the two sides via its own channels. Over the past few days, Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke on the phone respectively with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar and Afghan Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi.”
Regarding the outcome of these efforts, Lin said, “China hopes that both sides will remain calm and exercise restraint, engage face to face as soon as possible, achieve a ceasefire at the earliest opportunity, and resolve differences and disputes through dialogue. China will continue to make active efforts to facilitate reconciliation and ease tensions between the two sides.”
China’s president has also sent an indirect message hoping to end the conflict. According to a Reuters report, during a meeting in late February between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, the latter conveyed a message from President Xi to Pakistan’s premier to “cease hostilities.”
Despite the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s claims that both Afghanistan and Pakistan showed their “willingness to resolve the issues,” the initial response to Beijing’s mediating efforts seemed unenthusiastic, particularly from Pakistan. When Mosharraf Zaidi, a spokesperson for Sharif, was asked about China’s mediation, he replied that there would be no talks with the Taliban, without addressing China’s efforts directly. Some security officials from Pakistan have stressed that the military campaign will continue until the desired objectives are achieved.
As per some media reports from Pakistan, Islamabad had courteously declined Beijing’s efforts to end the conflict, mentioning the Taliban government’s failure to change its stance on the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, however, has denied reports about Pakistan turning down China’s call for a dialogue with Afghanistan. Tahir Andrabi, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Arab News that such speculation was “unwarranted.”
“Pakistan and China remain trusted partners and close friends,” Andrabi said. “We maintain regular and close communication on all issues of mutual concern and shared interest.” Referring to the call between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and his Pakistan counterpart Ishaq Dar, he said that “a wide range of issues were discussed, including developments related to Afghanistan.” Andrabi also referred to the shuttle mediation and said that during Yue’s visit, “consultations were held on matters relating to regional peace and stability, including Afghanistan.”
Of course, having dialogues with Chinese officials does not indicate a willingness to engage in ceasefire talks with the Taliban.
Despite initial reports suggesting that China’s mediation efforts had reduced the fighting, the conflict shows no signs of concluding. Cross-border attacks continue, including an alleged assault by Pakistan’s military on a rehabilitation center in Kabul, which reportedly killed more than 400 people. Zabiullah Mujahid, the Afghanistan Taliban’s spokesperson, accused Pakistan’s military of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and called it a “crime against humanity.” He said that those killed and injured were patients undergoing addiction treatment at the time of the attack.
Pakistan denied the accusation that it had targeted a hospital. Attaullah Tarar, Pakistan’s information minister, said, “We strongly refute and reject these allegations,” insisting that Pakistan “only targeted terrorist infrastructure and military locations.”
However, Afghanistan and Pakistan did agree to a temporary ceasefire for five days on the occasion of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr after requests by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye.
China’s efforts to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan do not seem to be bearing fruit. Pakistan’s apathetic response to China’s efforts point to one of two different scenarios. One, Pakistan is genuinely not interested in negotiating a deal with the Taliban until the threat of militant groups operating from Afghanistan – which the Taliban regime denies – is obliterated, with or without the Taliban’s help. Two, Pakistan’s growing closeness with the United States under the Trump administration has given it enough leverage to defy China’s wishes.
In either case, Pakistan would not want to lose China as an ally and partner, and most certainly has communicated its concerns with Beijing. But for now, China’s mediation efforts seem to have hit a dead end, which significantly casts doubt on its influence in both countries – but particularly in Pakistan.
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After unsuccessful efforts to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, China initiated efforts to resolve the conflict in its neighborhood, which Pakistan has declared an “open war.” The fighting started in October of last year when both Pakistan and Afghanistan conducted strikes inside each other’s territory. Even though a ceasefire was brokered, with mediation by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye, the attacks from both sides eventually resumed due to unresolved underlying issues.
The return to conflict raised significant concerns for China, which is an ally, economic partner, and neighbor of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Thus, Beijing actively started efforts to bring an end to the conflict, which deeply affects its interests in both countries.
After Pakistan launched its Operation Ghazab lil-Haq against the Taliban on February 27, China expressed its deep concerns and asked both sides “to remain calm, exercise restraint, properly resolve differences and disputes through dialogue and negotiation, end the fighting as soon as possible, and avoid more sufferings.”
With regards to mediation between both conflicting parties, Mao Ning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said that “China has been mediating between the two sides via its own channels, and stands ready to continue playing a constructive role for de-escalation and the improvement of relations between the two countries.” Explaining further, Mao added: “Our Ministry and embassies in Pakistan and Afghanistan are engaging relevant sides in the two countries.”
Along with clear calls for de-escalation and China’s mediation efforts, she also pointed out that Beijing asks “Pakistan and Afghanistan to ensure the safety and security of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in the two countries.” China has growing concerns about its own interests in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, which are faced with more uncertainties after the beginning of this conflict.
China ramped up its mediation efforts during the first and second weeks of March, when its special envoy for Afghanistan, Yu Xiaoyong, visited Islamabad and Kabul in an attempt to broker a ceasefire between the countries. According to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Yue Xiaoyong visited Afghanistan and Pakistan to conduct shuttle mediation regarding the recent conflicts between the two nations” between March 7 and 14. In Afghanistan, Yue held separate meetings with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Minister of Industry and Commerce Haji Nooruddin Azizi. While in Pakistan, “he met with Pakistani Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch, and Pakistani Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadiq, among other dignitaries,” China’s Foreign Ministry said.
Overall, “he urged both parties to exercise calm and restraint, cease fire and hostilities at the earliest opportunity, and resolve their differences and disputes through dialogue.” The Chinese statement also claimed that “both the Afghan and Pakistani sides expressed their gratitude for China’s mediation efforts, reiterating their willingness to resolve the issues through political and diplomatic channels.”
Besides shuttle mediation by Yue, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi also sought to calm the situation down. Lin Jian, another Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said during his regular press conference on March 16 that “China has been mediating between the two sides via its own channels. Over the past few days, Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke on the phone respectively with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar and Afghan Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi.”
Regarding the outcome of these efforts, Lin said, “China hopes that both sides will remain calm and exercise restraint, engage face to face as soon as possible, achieve a ceasefire at the earliest opportunity, and resolve differences and disputes through dialogue. China will continue to make active efforts to facilitate reconciliation and ease tensions between the two sides.”
China’s president has also sent an indirect message hoping to end the conflict. According to a Reuters report, during a meeting in late February between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, the latter conveyed a message from President Xi to Pakistan’s premier to “cease hostilities.”
Despite the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s claims that both Afghanistan and Pakistan showed their “willingness to resolve the issues,” the initial response to Beijing’s mediating efforts seemed unenthusiastic, particularly from Pakistan. When Mosharraf Zaidi, a spokesperson for Sharif, was asked about China’s mediation, he replied that there would be no talks with the Taliban, without addressing China’s efforts directly. Some security officials from Pakistan have stressed that the military campaign will continue until the desired objectives are achieved.
As per some media reports from Pakistan, Islamabad had courteously declined Beijing’s efforts to end the conflict, mentioning the Taliban government’s failure to change its stance on the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, however, has denied reports about Pakistan turning down China’s call for a dialogue with Afghanistan. Tahir Andrabi, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told Arab News that such speculation was “unwarranted.”
“Pakistan and China remain trusted partners and close friends,” Andrabi said. “We maintain regular and close communication on all issues of mutual concern and shared interest.” Referring to the call between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and his Pakistan counterpart Ishaq Dar, he said that “a wide range of issues were discussed, including developments related to Afghanistan.” Andrabi also referred to the shuttle mediation and said that during Yue’s visit, “consultations were held on matters relating to regional peace and stability, including Afghanistan.”
Of course, having dialogues with Chinese officials does not indicate a willingness to engage in ceasefire talks with the Taliban.
Despite initial reports suggesting that China’s mediation efforts had reduced the fighting, the conflict shows no signs of concluding. Cross-border attacks continue, including an alleged assault by Pakistan’s military on a rehabilitation center in Kabul, which reportedly killed more than 400 people. Zabiullah Mujahid, the Afghanistan Taliban’s spokesperson, accused Pakistan’s military of deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and called it a “crime against humanity.” He said that those killed and injured were patients undergoing addiction treatment at the time of the attack.
Pakistan denied the accusation that it had targeted a hospital. Attaullah Tarar, Pakistan’s information minister, said, “We strongly refute and reject these allegations,” insisting that Pakistan “only targeted terrorist infrastructure and military locations.”
However, Afghanistan and Pakistan did agree to a temporary ceasefire for five days on the occasion of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr after requests by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye.
China’s efforts to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan do not seem to be bearing fruit. Pakistan’s apathetic response to China’s efforts point to one of two different scenarios. One, Pakistan is genuinely not interested in negotiating a deal with the Taliban until the threat of militant groups operating from Afghanistan – which the Taliban regime denies – is obliterated, with or without the Taliban’s help. Two, Pakistan’s growing closeness with the United States under the Trump administration has given it enough leverage to defy China’s wishes.
In either case, Pakistan would not want to lose China as an ally and partner, and most certainly has communicated its concerns with Beijing. But for now, China’s mediation efforts seem to have hit a dead end, which significantly casts doubt on its influence in both countries – but particularly in Pakistan.
Muhammad Murad is a Ph.D. Political Science Candidate at the University of Bonn, Germany.
Afghanistan-Pakistan clashes
Afghanistan-Pakistan cross-border strikes
China-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral