Interviews | Security | East Asia

Underwater Autonomy in the China-US Naval Race

Insights from Verineia Codrean.

The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Verineia Codrean – chief strategy and partnerships officer at EUROATLAS, the Bremen-based company building the world’s longest-endurance autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), GREYSHARK – is the 526th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.”

Explain why the China-U.S. naval race may increasingly depend on who controls the underwater operating landscape.

I would use the word “understands” rather than “controls.” No country can fully control such a vast and difficult environment. But the side that can map it, monitor activity persistently, communicate underwater, and turn sensor data into decisions faster will gain a significant operational advantage. The underwater landscape affects submarine movement, anti-submarine warfare, mine warfare, and the security of critical infrastructure, so situational awareness below the surface is becoming central to maritime power.

How might China’s expanding underwater reach undermine U.S. maritime dominance?

Greater underwater reach can complicate U.S. and allied operations by making submarines, ports, sea lanes, and critical infrastructure harder to protect. Persistent sensing and autonomous systems could extend surveillance over much larger areas and increase uncertainty for an opponent. But reach alone does not equal dominance: effectiveness depends on sensor quality, communications, data fusion, logistics, and the ability to operate reliably in complex environments.

In what ways is Taiwan a preview of deniable, below-threshold disruption in the China-U.S. naval race?

Taiwan illustrates the difficulty of distinguishing accidents, commercial activity and deliberate coercion at sea. Cable damage, vessels operating under flags of convenience, ambiguous ownership, and activity near sensitive infrastructure can create disruption without producing immediate, conclusive attribution. That ambiguity is strategically useful because it delays both political and operational responses. However, individual incidents should not be presented as deliberate state action unless the evidence supports that conclusion.

Analyze why underwater autonomy is becoming crucial for detecting, monitoring, and attributing threats below the surface.

The central problem underwater is........

© The Diplomat